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ARKK $78.21 -1.13% (updated 2026-05-12)

Today's OI Read — ARKK

Where the walls are, where price sits, and what the dealer positioning implies for ARK Innovation ETF

In Between Walls?
NO
$65
2ND
$78
DOM
$78.21

Outside the dominant wall range — directional momentum more likely than mean reversion.

Magnet Strength
1.99× High (1.5–2×)
Current OI 161,595
30d Avg OI 81,038

Elevated OI — dealers carry larger hedges, making price walls structurally stronger.

Put/Call Ratio
1.61
PUT HEAVY

Above 1.2 — more put OI than calls. Hedging demand elevated; market participants are positioned defensively.

Dominant Wall
$78
▼ Below spot

The highest OI concentration strike — the structural anchor dealers are most committed to hedging.

Distance to #1 Wall
$+0.21
+0.27%

Price is above the dominant wall — acts as support.

Wall Skew
-0.070
BALANCED

Balanced call/put OI at the dominant wall — no dominant dealer incentive in either direction.

Today's Top Setup — ARKK

SQUEEZE, PIN, and CAGE scored 0–100 from OI structure. Highest score = today's highest-conviction setup.

PIN — 53.7% hit rate (n=1,719). CAGE — 45.4% (n=1,161). SQUEEZE — 49.5% (n=5,555). Half hit, half don't — the edge is asymmetric payoff.

Strength scores are locked

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See exactly which setup is most likely — and by how much

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🚀 SQUEEZE
candidate
Strength ██%
5d horizon
Target · Stock pops ≥+5% within 10 trading days — the kind of move where the winners run far enough to outweigh the misses.
📌 PIN
AUC 0.83 measured
Strength ██%
1d horizon
Target · Price closes within 0.5% of $78 (dom strike) by +1d.
↔ CAGE
AUC 0.55 measured
Strength ██%
5d horizon
Target · Price stays between $65 – $78 through +5d.
No cage setup today — walls are 16.6% apart. Dealers only defend tight ranges (<8%).

Top OI Walls

Largest open interest concentrations · sorted by strike price · * OI projected from prior day

2026-05-12
Rank Strike Call OI Put OI Total OI P/C % of Max
#4 $80 Resistance 8,006 932 8,938 0.12
23%
#5 $79 Resistance 1,743 7,176 8,919 4.12
23%
▶ $78.21
#1 $78 Support 17,975 20,679 38,654 1.15
100%
#3 $70 Support 1,277 11,766 13,043 9.21
34%
#2 $65 Support 284 16,703 16,987 58.81
44%

SQUEEZE / PIN / CAGE Setup Backtest — ARKK

Last 50 sessions — which setup fired, what the score was, and whether it hit. See the actual win/loss record.

0 days ·
Min Strength 60
Magnet:
2026-05-05
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $78
Ceiling $80
Range 2.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $78–$80 for 5 days
What Happened
$78.21
+2.13%
Broke up — max move 3.9% (need ≤2%)
2026-05-04
📌 PIN
Strength 75%
Magnet
Floor $78
Ceiling $80
Range 2.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $78 by end of day
What Happened
$76.58
-2.11%
Closed 1.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.1%
2026-05-01
↔ CAGE
Strength 75%
Magnet
Floor $78
Ceiling $80
Range 2.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $78–$80 for 5 days
What Happened
$79.12
+2.86%
Broke up — max move 3.5% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-30
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $66
Ceiling $71
Range 6.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $66–$71 for 5 days
What Happened
$77.93
+2.76%
Broke up — max move 3.2% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-29
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $66
Ceiling $72
Range 8.8%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $66 by end of day
What Happened
$75.84
+3.14%
Closed 13.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +3.1%
2026-04-28
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $66
Ceiling $74
Range 10.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $66 by end of day
What Happened
$73.53
-2.54%
Closed 10.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.5%
2026-04-27
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $66
Ceiling $72
Range 8.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $66 by end of day
What Happened
$75.45
-1.44%
Closed 12.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.4%
2026-04-24
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $66
Ceiling $72
Range 8.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $66 by end of day
What Happened
$76.55
+0.07%
Closed 13.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.1%
2026-04-23
📌 PIN
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $65
Ceiling $76
Range 13.7%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $76 by end of day
What Happened
$76.50
+0.00%
Closed 1.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.0%
2026-04-22
📌 PIN
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $65
Ceiling $76
Range 13.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $76 by end of day
What Happened
$76.50
-3.53%
Closed 1.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -3.5%
2026-04-21
📌 PIN
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $65
Ceiling $77
Range 15.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $65 by end of day
What Happened
$79.30
+2.48%
Closed 18.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.5%
2026-04-20
📌 PIN
Strength 10%
Magnet
Floor $65
Ceiling $77
Range 15.1%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $65 by end of day
What Happened
$77.38
-2.45%
Closed 15.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.4%
2026-04-17
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $65
Ceiling $74
Range 12.0%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $65 by end of day
What Happened
$79.32
+0.11%
Closed 18.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.1%
2026-04-16
📌 PIN
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $63
Ceiling $72
Range 11.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $72 by end of day
What Happened
$79.23
+2.44%
Closed 9.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.4%
2026-04-15
↔ CAGE
Strength 75%
Magnet
Floor $71
Ceiling $72
Range 1.3%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $71–$72 for 5 days
What Happened
$79.30
+2.36%
Broke down — max move 2.4% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-14
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $71
Ceiling $72
Range 1.3%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $71–$72 for 5 days
What Happened
$77.38
+3.41%
Broke up — max move 5.9% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-13
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $71
Ceiling $72
Range 1.4%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $71–$72 for 5 days
What Happened
$79.32
+10.23%
Broke up — max move 7.7% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-10
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $71
Ceiling $72
Range 1.4%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $71–$72 for 5 days
What Happened
$79.23
+14.35%
Broke up — max move 11.8% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-09
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $67
Ceiling $72
Range 7.3%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $67–$72 for 5 days
What Happened
$77.34
+12.22%
Broke up — max move 8.6% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-08
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $65
Ceiling $72
Range 9.9%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $65 by end of day
What Happened
$68.92
-2.05%
Closed 5.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.0%
2026-04-07
📌 PIN
Strength 15%
Magnet
Floor $65
Ceiling $72
Range 10.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $65 by end of day
What Happened
$70.36
+2.33%
Closed 7.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.3%
2026-04-06
📌 PIN
Strength 15%
Magnet
Floor $65
Ceiling $72
Range 10.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $72 by end of day
What Happened
$68.76
-0.06%
Closed 4.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.1%
2026-04-02
📌 PIN
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $69
Ceiling $70
Range 1.5%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $69 by end of day
What Happened
$68.80
+0.35%
2026-04-01
📌 PIN
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $69
Ceiling $70
Range 1.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $69 by end of day
What Happened
$68.56
+0.23%
Closed 0.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.2%
2026-03-31
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $69
Ceiling $70
Range 1.5%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $69–$70 for 5 days
What Happened
$70.36
+4.10%
2026-03-30
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $69
Ceiling $70
Range 1.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $69–$70 for 5 days
What Happened
$68.76
+8.25%
Broke up — max move 7.9% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-27
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $69
Ceiling $70
Range 1.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $69–$70 for 5 days
What Happened
$68.80
+6.45%
Broke down — max move 5.8% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-26
↔ CAGE
Strength 40%
Magnet
Floor $65
Ceiling $70
Range 7.4%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $65–$70 for 5 days
What Happened
$68.56
+1.74%
Broke down — max move 5.7% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-25
📌 PIN
Strength 75%
Magnet
Floor $65
Ceiling $70
Range 7.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $70 by end of day
What Happened
$67.39
-3.59%
Closed 3.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -3.6%
2026-03-24
📌 PIN
Strength 50%
Magnet
Floor $65
Ceiling $70
Range 7.2%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $70 by end of day
What Happened
$69.90
+1.30%
2026-03-23
📌 PIN
Strength 50%
Magnet
Floor $65
Ceiling $70
Range 7.1%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $70 by end of day
What Happened
$69.00
-2.71%
Closed 1.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.7%
2026-03-20
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $65
Ceiling $70
Range 7.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $65–$70 for 5 days
What Happened
$64.63
-6.54%
Broke up — max move 2.6% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-19
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $70
Ceiling $71
Range 1.4%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $70–$71 for 5 days
What Happened
$67.39
-5.18%
Broke down — max move 2.9% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-18
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $70
Ceiling $71
Range 1.4%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $70–$71 for 5 days
What Happened
$69.90
-2.11%
Broke down — max move 3.2% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-17
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $70
Ceiling $71
Range 1.4%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $70–$71 for 5 days
What Happened
$69.00
-5.56%
Broke down — max move 5.4% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-16
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $70
Ceiling $71
Range 1.4%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $70–$71 for 5 days
What Happened
$70.92
-1.57%
2026-03-13
📌 PIN
Strength 75%
Magnet
Floor $70
Ceiling $71
Range 1.4%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $70 by end of day
What Happened
$72.05
+2.56%
Closed 2.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.6%
2026-03-12
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $74
Ceiling $76
Range 2.8%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $74–$76 for 5 days
What Happened
$71.07
+0.61%
Broke down — max move 3.4% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-11
📌 PIN
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $74
Ceiling $76
Range 2.7%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $74 by end of day
What Happened
$70.64
-3.33%
Closed 3.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -3.3%
2026-03-10
📌 PIN
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $74
Ceiling $76
Range 2.7%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $74 by end of day
What Happened
$73.07
+0.25%
Closed 0.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.2%
2026-03-09
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $74
Ceiling $76
Range 2.7%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $74–$76 for 5 days
What Happened
$72.05
-3.02%
Broke down — max move 4.9% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-06
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $70
Ceiling $71
Range 1.4%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $70–$71 for 5 days
What Happened
$70.25
-2.97%
Broke up — max move 2.6% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-05
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $70
Ceiling $76
Range 7.4%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $70–$76 for 5 days
What Happened
$70.64
-4.53%
Broke down — max move 2.1% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-04
📌 PIN
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $70
Ceiling $76
Range 7.3%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $76 by end of day
What Happened
$73.99
-1.25%
Closed 2.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.3%
2026-03-03
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $70
Ceiling $76
Range 7.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $70–$76 for 5 days
What Happened
$72.89
+0.87%
Broke up — max move 3.7% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-02
📌 PIN
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $70
Ceiling $76
Range 7.4%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $76 by end of day
What Happened
$72.26
-2.64%
Closed 4.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.6%
2026-02-27
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $65
Ceiling $70
Range 6.9%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $65–$70 for 5 days
What Happened
$72.40
-0.70%
Broke up — max move 2.8% (need ≤2%)
2026-02-26
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $65
Ceiling $71
Range 8.0%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $65 by end of day
What Happened
$72.91
-2.28%
Closed 10.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.3%
2026-02-25
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $65
Ceiling $66
Range 1.4%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $65–$66 for 5 days
What Happened
$74.93
+1.89%
2026-02-24
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $65
Ceiling $72
Range 10.4%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $65 by end of day
What Happened
$73.54
+2.04%
Closed 11.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.0%