SPY Gamma Squeeze, Pin & Wall Analysis

SPY S&P 500 ETF $738.18 +0.18% (updated 2026-05-12)

Today's OI Read — SPY

Where the walls are, where price sits, and what the dealer positioning implies for S&P 500 ETF

In Between Walls?

$650

2ND

$690

DOM

$738.18

Outside the dominant wall range — directional momentum more likely than mean reversion.

Magnet Strength Details →

1.44× Elevated (1–1.5×)

Current OI 3,004,640

30d Avg OI 2,090,322

Slightly above average — mild additional pinning force at key strikes.

Put/Call Ratio

2.41

PUT HEAVY

Above 1.2 — more put OI than calls. Hedging demand elevated; market participants are positioned defensively.

Dominant Wall

$690

▼ Below spot

The highest OI concentration strike — the structural anchor dealers are most committed to hedging.

Distance to #1 Wall

$+48.18

+6.53%

Price is above the dominant wall — acts as support.

Wall Skew

-0.686

PUT HEAVY

Put-heavy at the dominant wall — put sellers defend this level. Acts as structural support/magnet.

Today's Top Setup — SPY

SQUEEZE, PIN, and CAGE scored 0–100 from OI structure. Highest score = today's highest-conviction setup.

PIN — 53.7% hit rate (n=1,719). CAGE — 45.4% (n=1,161). SQUEEZE — 49.5% (n=5,555). Half hit, half don't — the edge is asymmetric payoff.

Strength scores are locked

PRO

See exactly which setup is most likely — and by how much

Unlock

🚀 SQUEEZE

candidate

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Stock pops ≥+5% within 10 trading days — the kind of move where the winners run far enough to outweigh the misses.

📌 PIN

AUC 0.83 measured

Strength ██%

1d horizon

Target · Price closes within 0.5% of $690 (dom strike) by +1d.

↔ CAGE

AUC 0.55 measured

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Price stays between $650 – $690 through +5d.

Top OI Walls

Largest open interest concentrations · sorted by strike price · * OI projected from prior day

2026-05-12

Rank	Strike	Call OI	Put OI	Total OI	P/C	% of Max
▶ $738.18
#4	$700 Support	41,204	67,821	109,025	1.65	78%
#1	$690 Support	21,893	117,377	139,270	5.36	100%
#3	$680 Support	16,587	98,496	115,083	5.94	83%
#2	$650 Support	8,244	116,527	124,771	14.13	90%
#5	$600 Support	1,299	92,939	94,238	71.55	68%

Dealer Magnet Strength

When total OI is elevated vs its 30-day rolling average, dealer hedging is heavier — walls act like magnets. Very High = stronger PIN / CAGE conviction. Near-normal = weaker structural hold.

Current Magnet Strength

Elevated (1–1.5×)

Low (<0.7×)

68.9%

119 days · 1d

Normal (0.7–1×)

79.0%

121 days · 1d

Elevated (1–1.5×)

80.0%

71 days · 1d

High (1.5–2×)

83.1%

59 days · 1d

Very High (>2×)

75.8%

33 days · 1d

Containment Rate by OI Magnitude Bucket

OI ratio = today's total OI ÷ 30-day rolling average. Does elevated OI predict price staying inside the dominant wall range?

OI Level	Days	1d	2d	5d	10d	20d
Low (<0.7×)	119	68.9%	55.5%	41.9%	44.2%	31.2%
Normal (0.7–1×)	121	79.0%	69.7%	54.6%	46.6%	35.7%
Elevated (1–1.5×)	71	80.0%	68.1%	69.1%	51.5%	50.0%
High (1.5–2×)	59	83.1%	74.6%	54.2%	37.3%	29.3%
Very High (>2×)	33	75.8%	75.8%	54.5%	45.5%	27.3%

SQUEEZE / PIN / CAGE Setup Backtest — SPY

Last 50 sessions — which setup fired, what the score was, and whether it hit. See the actual win/loss record.

0 days ·

Min Strength 60

Magnet:

2026-05-05

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $685

Ceiling $700

Range 2.1%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $685–$700 for 5 days

What Happened

$738.18

+1.99%

2026-05-04

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $685

Ceiling $700

Range 2.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $685–$700 for 5 days

What Happened

$739.30

+2.97%

Broke up — max move 2.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-05-01

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $685

Ceiling $700

Range 2.1%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $685–$700 for 5 days

What Happened

$737.62

+2.35%

2026-04-30

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $695

Ceiling $700

Range 0.7%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $695–$700 for 5 days

What Happened

$731.58

+1.80%

2026-04-29

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $695

Ceiling $700

Range 0.7%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $695–$700 for 5 days

What Happened

$733.83

+3.13%

2026-04-28

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $695

Ceiling $700

Range 0.7%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $695–$700 for 5 days

What Happened

$723.77

+1.70%

2026-04-27

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $685

Ceiling $700

Range 2.1%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $685–$700 for 5 days

What Happened

$718.01

+0.40%

2026-04-24

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $685

Ceiling $695

Range 1.4%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $685–$695 for 5 days

What Happened

$720.65

+0.94%

2026-04-23

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $685

Ceiling $700

Range 2.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $700 by end of day

What Happened

$713.94

+0.77%

Closed 2.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.8%

2026-04-22

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $683

Ceiling $701

Range 2.5%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $683–$701 for 5 days

What Happened

$711.58

+0.05%

2026-04-21

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $675

Ceiling $700

Range 3.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $700 by end of day

What Happened

$711.21

+1.01%

Closed 1.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.0%

2026-04-20

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $700

Ceiling $710

Range 1.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $700 by end of day

What Happened

$704.08

-0.65%

Closed 0.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.7%

2026-04-17

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $680

Ceiling $690

Range 1.4%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $680–$690 for 5 days

What Happened

$713.94

+0.54%

2026-04-16

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $590

Ceiling $650

Range 8.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $650 by end of day

What Happened

$710.14

+1.21%

Closed 8.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.2%

2026-04-15

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $590

Ceiling $650

Range 8.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $650 by end of day

What Happened

$701.66

+0.25%

Closed 7.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.2%

2026-04-14

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $590

Ceiling $650

Range 8.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $650 by end of day

What Happened

$699.94

+0.79%

Closed 7.2% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.8%

2026-04-13

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $590

Ceiling $650

Range 8.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $650 by end of day

What Happened

$694.46

+1.22%

Closed 6.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.2%

2026-04-10

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $590

Ceiling $650

Range 8.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $650 by end of day

What Happened

$686.10

+0.98%

Closed 5.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.0%

2026-04-09

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $630

Ceiling $640

Range 1.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $630–$640 for 5 days

What Happened

$701.66

+3.20%

Broke down — max move 2.1% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-06

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $615

Ceiling $630

Range 2.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $615–$630 for 5 days

What Happened

$686.10

+4.12%

Broke down — max move 100.0% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-02

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $625

Ceiling $645

Range 3.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $645 by end of day

What Happened

$658.93

+0.47%

Closed 2.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.5%

2026-04-01

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $625

Ceiling $630

Range 0.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $625–$630 for 5 days

What Happened

$679.91

+3.77%

Broke up — max move 100.0% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-31

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $615

Ceiling $630

Range 2.3%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $615–$630 for 5 days

What Happened

Data pending

2026-03-30

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $540

Ceiling $630

Range 14.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $630 by end of day

What Happened

$650.34

+2.91%

Closed 3.2% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.9%

2026-03-27

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $540

Ceiling $640

Range 15.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $640 by end of day

What Happened

$631.97

-0.33%

Closed 1.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.3%

2026-03-26

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $625

Ceiling $640

Range 2.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $640 by end of day

What Happened

$634.09

-1.71%

Closed 0.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.7%

2026-03-25

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $530

Ceiling $540

Range 1.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $530–$540 for 5 days

What Happened

$655.24

-0.24%

Broke down — max move 3.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-24

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $540

Ceiling $640

Range 15.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $640 by end of day

What Happened

$656.82

+0.56%

Closed 2.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.6%

2026-03-23

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $625

Ceiling $640

Range 2.3%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $625–$640 for 5 days

What Happened

$631.97

-3.57%

2026-03-20

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $645

Ceiling $660

Range 2.3%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $645–$660 for 5 days

What Happened

$634.09

-2.23%

2026-03-19

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $650

Ceiling $660

Range 1.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $660 by end of day

What Happened

$648.57

-1.70%

Closed 1.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.7%

2026-03-18

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $650

Ceiling $660

Range 1.5%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $660 by end of day

What Happened

$659.80

-0.25%

2026-03-17

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $650

Ceiling $660

Range 1.5%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $660 by end of day

What Happened

$661.43

-1.40%

2026-03-16

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $645

Ceiling $660

Range 2.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $660 by end of day

What Happened

$670.79

+0.26%

Closed 1.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.3%

2026-03-13

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $645

Ceiling $660

Range 2.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $660 by end of day

What Happened

$669.03

+1.02%

Closed 1.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.0%

2026-03-12

📌 PIN

Strength 65%

Magnet

Floor $660

Ceiling $675

Range 2.3%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $660 by end of day

What Happened

$662.29

-0.57%

2026-03-11

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $660

Ceiling $675

Range 2.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $660–$675 for 5 days

What Happened

$661.43

-2.20%

Broke down — max move 2.1% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-10

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $650

Ceiling $660

Range 1.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $650–$660 for 5 days

What Happened

$670.79

-0.94%

Broke down — max move 2.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-09

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $660

Ceiling $675

Range 2.2%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $675 by end of day

What Happened

$677.18

-0.16%

2026-03-06

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $660

Ceiling $675

Range 2.2%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $675 by end of day

What Happened

$678.27

+0.88%

2026-03-05

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $680

Ceiling $700

Range 2.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $680 by end of day

What Happened

$672.38

-1.31%

Closed 1.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.3%

2026-03-04

📌 PIN

Strength 65%

Magnet

Floor $680

Ceiling $690

Range 1.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $690 by end of day

What Happened

$681.31

-0.56%

Closed 1.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.6%

2026-03-03

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $665

Ceiling $680

Range 2.2%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $665–$680 for 5 days

What Happened

$677.18

-0.46%

2026-03-02

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $660

Ceiling $675

Range 2.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $675 by end of day

What Happened

$680.33

-0.88%

Closed 0.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.9%

2026-02-27

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $660

Ceiling $675

Range 2.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $675 by end of day

What Happened

$686.38

+0.06%

Closed 1.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.1%

2026-02-26

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $650

Ceiling $660

Range 1.5%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $650–$660 for 5 days

What Happened

$681.31

-1.16%

2026-02-25

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $650

Ceiling $660

Range 1.4%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $650–$660 for 5 days

What Happened

$685.13

-1.16%

2026-02-24

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $650

Ceiling $660

Range 1.5%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $650–$660 for 5 days

What Happened

$680.33

-1.02%

2026-02-23

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $650

Ceiling $690

Range 5.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $650–$690 for 5 days

What Happened

$686.38

+0.58%

2026-02-20

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $650

Ceiling $690

Range 5.8%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $650–$690 for 5 days

What Happened

$685.99

-0.50%