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BABA $134.78 -1.25% (updated 2026-05-12)

Today's OI Read — BABA

Where the walls are, where price sits, and what the dealer positioning implies for Alibaba

In Between Walls?
NO
$135
2ND
$145
DOM
$134.78

Outside the dominant wall range — directional momentum more likely than mean reversion.

Magnet Strength
2.28× Very High (>2×)
Current OI 233,230
30d Avg OI 102,416

Elevated OI — dealers carry larger hedges, making price walls structurally stronger.

Put/Call Ratio
0.58
CALL HEAVY

Below 0.8 — call OI dominates. Bullish positioning; dealers are short calls and will sell delta into rallies.

Dominant Wall
$145
▲ Above spot

The highest OI concentration strike — the structural anchor dealers are most committed to hedging.

Distance to #1 Wall
$-10.22
-7.58%

Price is below the dominant wall — acts as resistance.

Wall Skew
+0.823
CALL HEAVY

Call-heavy at the dominant wall — call sellers cap rallies toward it. Acts as resistance.

Today's Top Setup — BABA

SQUEEZE, PIN, and CAGE scored 0–100 from OI structure. Highest score = today's highest-conviction setup.

PIN — 53.7% hit rate (n=1,719). CAGE — 45.4% (n=1,161). SQUEEZE — 49.5% (n=5,555). Half hit, half don't — the edge is asymmetric payoff.

Strength scores are locked

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See exactly which setup is most likely — and by how much

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🚀 SQUEEZE
candidate
Strength ██%
5d horizon
Target · Stock pops ≥+5% within 10 trading days — the kind of move where the winners run far enough to outweigh the misses.
📌 PIN
AUC 0.83 measured
Strength ██%
1d horizon
Target · Price closes within 0.5% of $145 (dom strike) by +1d.
↔ CAGE
AUC 0.55 measured
Strength ██%
5d horizon
Target · Price stays between $135 – $145 through +5d.

Top OI Walls

Largest open interest concentrations · sorted by strike price · * OI projected from prior day

2026-05-12
Rank Strike Call OI Put OI Total OI P/C % of Max
#5 $160 Resistance 16,691 4,619 21,310 0.28
64%
#3 $150 Resistance 20,814 2,333 23,147 0.11
70%
#1 $145 Resistance 30,118 2,928 33,046 0.10
100%
#4 $140 Resistance 16,290 6,525 22,815 0.40
69%
#2 $135 Resistance 19,791 9,376 29,167 0.47
88%
▶ $134.78

SQUEEZE / PIN / CAGE Setup Backtest — BABA

Last 50 sessions — which setup fired, what the score was, and whether it hit. See the actual win/loss record.

0 days ·
Min Strength 60
Magnet:
2026-05-05
📌 PIN
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $134
Ceiling $140
Range 4.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $134 by end of day
What Happened
$141.44
+6.94%
Closed 5.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +6.9%
2026-05-04
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $125
Ceiling $135
Range 7.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $125–$135 for 5 days
What Happened
$137.30
+3.02%
Broke down — max move 6.1% (need ≤2%)
2026-05-01
📌 PIN
Strength 15%
Magnet
Floor $125
Ceiling $140
Range 11.4%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $125 by end of day
What Happened
$133.27
+1.35%
Closed 6.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.3%
2026-04-30
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $136
Ceiling $140
Range 3.0%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $136–$140 for 5 days
What Happened
$141.00
+6.92%
2026-04-29
📌 PIN
Strength 15%
Magnet
Floor $125
Ceiling $140
Range 11.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $140 by end of day
What Happened
$131.88
+1.11%
Closed 6.2% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.1%
2026-04-28
📌 PIN
Strength 15%
Magnet
Floor $125
Ceiling $140
Range 11.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $140 by end of day
What Happened
$130.43
-0.32%
Closed 7.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.3%
2026-04-27
📌 PIN
Strength 15%
Magnet
Floor $125
Ceiling $140
Range 11.3%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $140 by end of day
What Happened
$130.85
-1.26%
Closed 6.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.3%
2026-04-24
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $125
Ceiling $140
Range 11.0%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $140 by end of day
What Happened
$132.52
-2.43%
Closed 5.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.4%
2026-04-23
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $138
Ceiling $140
Range 1.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $138–$140 for 5 days
What Happened
$131.88
+0.14%
Broke up — max move 3.1% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-22
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $140
Ceiling $150
Range 7.3%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $140–$150 for 5 days
What Happened
$130.43
-4.39%
Broke down — max move 3.5% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-21
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $140
Ceiling $150
Range 7.4%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $140–$150 for 5 days
What Happened
$130.85
-3.35%
Broke up — max move 2.7% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-20
📌 PIN
Strength 75%
Magnet
Floor $140
Ceiling $145
Range 3.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $140 by end of day
What Happened
$135.38
-3.42%
Closed 3.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -3.4%
2026-04-17
📌 PIN
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $140
Ceiling $150
Range 7.1%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $140 by end of day
What Happened
$140.17
-0.60%
2026-04-16
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $130
Ceiling $140
Range 7.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $130–$140 for 5 days
What Happened
$131.70
-4.97%
Broke up — max move 2.3% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-15
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $130
Ceiling $140
Range 7.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $130–$140 for 5 days
What Happened
$136.42
+2.36%
Broke up — max move 5.8% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-14
📌 PIN
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $130
Ceiling $140
Range 7.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $130 by end of day
What Happened
$133.28
+1.47%
Closed 2.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.5%
2026-04-13
📌 PIN
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $130
Ceiling $140
Range 7.8%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $130 by end of day
What Happened
$131.35
+2.61%
Closed 1.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.6%
2026-04-10
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $130
Ceiling $140
Range 7.9%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $130–$140 for 5 days
What Happened
$141.01
+10.74%
Broke up — max move 4.7% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-09
📌 PIN
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $130
Ceiling $135
Range 3.9%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $130 by end of day
What Happened
$127.33
-0.27%
Closed 2.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.3%
2026-04-08
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $115
Ceiling $130
Range 12.0%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $130 by end of day
What Happened
$127.68
+1.88%
Closed 1.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.9%
2026-04-07
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $125
Ceiling $130
Range 4.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $125–$130 for 5 days
What Happened
$131.35
+9.71%
Broke up — max move 6.6% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-06
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $130
Ceiling $135
Range 4.1%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $130–$135 for 5 days
What Happened
$128.01
+4.66%
Broke down — max move 4.4% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-02
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $125
Ceiling $130
Range 4.1%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $125–$130 for 5 days
What Happened
$127.33
+4.33%
Broke up — max move 2.7% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-01
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $125
Ceiling $130
Range 4.0%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $125–$130 for 5 days
What Happened
$127.68
+3.19%
Broke down — max move 3.2% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-31
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $130
Ceiling $135
Range 4.0%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $130–$135 for 5 days
What Happened
$125.32
-0.11%
Broke down — max move 2.7% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-30
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $130
Ceiling $135
Range 4.1%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $130–$135 for 5 days
What Happened
$119.72
-1.85%
Broke up — max move 2.9% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-27
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $135
Ceiling $140
Range 4.1%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $135–$140 for 5 days
What Happened
$122.31
-0.31%
Broke down — max move 2.3% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-26
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $130
Ceiling $150
Range 15.9%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $130 by end of day
What Happened
$122.69
-2.17%
Closed 5.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.2%
2026-03-25
📌 PIN
Strength 75%
Magnet
Floor $130
Ceiling $150
Range 15.4%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $130 by end of day
What Happened
$125.41
-3.43%
Closed 3.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -3.4%
2026-03-24
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $130
Ceiling $150
Range 15.9%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $130 by end of day
What Happened
$129.87
+3.50%
2026-03-23
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $125
Ceiling $150
Range 19.8%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $150 by end of day
What Happened
$125.48
-0.46%
Closed 19.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.5%
2026-03-20
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $125
Ceiling $135
Range 8.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $125 by end of day
What Happened
$126.06
+2.98%
Closed 0.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +3.0%
2026-03-19
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $130
Ceiling $140
Range 8.0%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $140 by end of day
What Happened
$122.41
-1.99%
Closed 14.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.0%
2026-03-18
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $140
Ceiling $150
Range 7.4%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $140–$150 for 5 days
What Happened
$129.87
-3.39%
Broke down — max move 8.9% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-17
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $130
Ceiling $150
Range 14.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $150 by end of day
What Happened
$134.43
-1.57%
Closed 11.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.6%
2026-03-16
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $130
Ceiling $150
Range 14.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $150 by end of day
What Happened
$136.57
-0.10%
Closed 9.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.1%
2026-03-13
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $130
Ceiling $150
Range 14.8%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $150 by end of day
What Happened
$136.71
+1.11%
Closed 9.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.1%
2026-03-12
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $135
Ceiling $140
Range 3.7%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $135–$140 for 5 days
What Happened
$124.90
-6.93%
2026-03-11
📌 PIN
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $135
Ceiling $140
Range 3.7%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $135 by end of day
What Happened
$134.20
-1.53%
Closed 0.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.5%
2026-03-10
📌 PIN
Strength 45%
Magnet
Floor $135
Ceiling $140
Range 3.7%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $135 by end of day
What Happened
$136.29
-0.41%
Closed 0.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.4%
2026-03-09
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $135
Ceiling $140
Range 3.8%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $135–$140 for 5 days
What Happened
$136.71
+3.07%
Broke up — max move 3.2% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-06
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $140
Ceiling $150
Range 7.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $140–$150 for 5 days
What Happened
$135.21
+3.38%
Broke up — max move 4.6% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-05
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $145
Ceiling $152
Range 5.8%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $145–$152 for 5 days
What Happened
$134.20
+2.95%
Broke up — max move 5.0% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-04
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $152
Ceiling $155
Range 1.9%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $152–$155 for 5 days
What Happened
$136.29
+2.27%
Broke down — max move 2.2% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-03
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $155
Ceiling $160
Range 3.7%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $155–$160 for 5 days
What Happened
$136.85
+0.93%
Broke down — max move 3.9% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-02
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $155
Ceiling $160
Range 3.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $155–$160 for 5 days
What Happened
$132.64
-6.96%
Broke down — max move 8.6% (need ≤2%)
2026-02-27
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $155
Ceiling $160
Range 3.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $155–$160 for 5 days
What Happened
$130.79
-9.24%
Broke down — max move 7.5% (need ≤2%)
2026-02-26
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $160
Ceiling $165
Range 3.4%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $160–$165 for 5 days
What Happened
$130.35
-11.96%
Broke down — max move 8.4% (need ≤2%)
2026-02-25
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $160
Ceiling $165
Range 3.3%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $160–$165 for 5 days
What Happened
$133.27
-12.48%
Broke down — max move 6.4% (need ≤2%)
2026-02-24
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $160
Ceiling $165
Range 3.3%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $160–$165 for 5 days
What Happened
$135.59
-11.44%
Broke down — max move 5.9% (need ≤2%)