BABA Gamma Squeeze, Pin & Wall Analysis

BABA Alibaba $130.82 -1.08% (updated 2026-06-02)

Today's OI Read — BABA

Where the walls are, where price sits, and what the dealer positioning implies for Alibaba

In Between Walls?

YES

$130

2ND

$135

DOM

$130.82

Sandwiched between dominant walls — dealer hedging on both sides creates structural pinning.

Magnet Strength Details →

0.56× Low (<0.7×)

Current OI 53,977

30d Avg OI 97,268

Near or below average — wall levels carry typical structural weight.

Put/Call Ratio

0.51

CALL HEAVY

Below 0.8 — call OI dominates. Bullish positioning; dealers are short calls and will sell delta into rallies.

Dominant Wall

$135

▲ Above spot

The highest OI concentration strike — the structural anchor dealers are most committed to hedging.

Distance to #1 Wall

$-4.18

-3.20%

Price is below the dominant wall — acts as resistance.

Wall Skew

+0.656

CALL HEAVY

Call-heavy at the dominant wall — call sellers cap rallies toward it. Acts as resistance.

Today's Top Setup — BABA

SQUEEZE, PIN, and CAGE scored 0–100 from OI structure. Highest score = today's highest-conviction setup.

PIN — 53.7% hit rate (n=1,719). CAGE — 45.4% (n=1,161). SQUEEZE — 49.5% (n=5,555). Half hit, half don't — the edge is asymmetric payoff.

Strength scores are locked

PRO

See exactly which setup is most likely — and by how much

Unlock

🚀 SQUEEZE

candidate

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Stock pops ≥+5% within 10 trading days — the kind of move where the winners run far enough to outweigh the misses.

📌 PIN

AUC 0.83 measured

Strength ██%

1d horizon

Target · Price closes within 0.5% of $135 (dom strike) by +1d.

↔ CAGE

AUC 0.55 measured

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Price stays between $130 – $135 through +5d.

Top OI Walls

Largest open interest concentrations · sorted by strike price

2026-06-02

Rank	Strike	Call OI	Put OI	Total OI	P/C	% of Max
#3	$145 Resistance	4,906	0	4,906	0.00	83%
#5	$140 Resistance	2,153	145	2,298	0.07	39%
#1	$135 Resistance	4,897	1,018	5,915	0.21	100%
▶ $130.82
#2	$130 Support	4,994	859	5,853	0.17	99%
#4	$125 Support	1,951	2,381	4,332	1.22	73%

Dealer Magnet Strength

When total OI is elevated vs its 30-day rolling average, dealer hedging is heavier — walls act like magnets. Very High = stronger PIN / CAGE conviction. Near-normal = weaker structural hold.

Current Magnet Strength

Low (<0.7×)

72.2%

177 days · 1d

Normal (0.7–1×)

71.7%

92 days · 1d

Elevated (1–1.5×)

59.6%

52 days · 1d

High (1.5–2×)

84.1%

44 days · 1d

Very High (>2×)

74.5%

51 days · 1d

Containment Rate by OI Magnitude Bucket

OI ratio = today's total OI ÷ 30-day rolling average. Does elevated OI predict price staying inside the dominant wall range?

OI Level	Days	1d	2d	5d	10d	20d
Low (<0.7×)	177	72.2%	62.3%	45.9%	32.5%	26.5%
Normal (0.7–1×)	92	71.7%	56.5%	41.3%	23.3%	21.6%
Elevated (1–1.5×)	52	59.6%	57.7%	36.5%	34.6%	25.0%
High (1.5–2×)	44	84.1%	72.7%	63.6%	54.5%	36.4%
Very High (>2×)	51	74.5%	70.6%	60.8%	35.3%	39.1%

SQUEEZE / PIN / CAGE Setup Backtest — BABA

Last 50 sessions — which setup fired, what the score was, and whether it hit. See the actual win/loss record.

0 days ·

Min Strength 60

Magnet:

2026-05-26

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $140

Range 3.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $135–$140 for 5 days

What Happened

$130.82

+1.04%

Broke down — max move 4.1% (need ≤2%)

2026-05-22

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $140

Ceiling $145

Range 3.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $140–$145 for 5 days

What Happened

$125.40

-3.54%

Broke down — max move 3.0% (need ≤2%)

2026-05-21

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $140

Ceiling $150

Range 7.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $140–$150 for 5 days

What Happened

$124.22

-5.51%

Broke down — max move 2.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-05-20

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $140

Ceiling $160

Range 14.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $160 by end of day

What Happened

$131.47

-2.23%

Closed 21.2% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.2%

2026-05-19

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $140

Ceiling $160

Range 14.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $160 by end of day

What Happened

$134.47

-0.86%

Closed 18.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.9%

2026-05-18

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $140

Ceiling $145

Range 3.8%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $140–$145 for 5 days

What Happened

$129.47

-2.84%

2026-05-15

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $140

Ceiling $145

Range 3.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $140–$145 for 5 days

What Happened

$130.00

-1.95%

Broke up — max move 2.3% (need ≤2%)

2026-05-14

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $145

Range 7.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $135–$145 for 5 days

What Happened

$131.47

-6.84%

Broke down — max move 6.0% (need ≤2%)

2026-05-13

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $145

Range 6.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $145 by end of day

What Happened

$141.12

-3.22%

Closed 2.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -3.2%

2026-05-12

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $145

Range 7.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $135–$145 for 5 days

What Happened

$135.64

+0.64%

Broke up — max move 8.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-05-11

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $145

Range 7.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $135–$145 for 5 days

What Happened

$133.26

-2.94%

Broke down — max move 6.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-05-08

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $145

Range 7.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $135–$145 for 5 days

What Happened

$132.59

-5.33%

Broke down — max move 4.1% (need ≤2%)

2026-05-07

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $134

Ceiling $140

Range 4.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $134–$140 for 5 days

What Happened

$141.12

+0.09%

Broke down — max move 4.4% (need ≤2%)

2026-05-06

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $134

Ceiling $135

Range 0.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $134–$135 for 5 days

What Happened

$145.81

+3.09%

Broke down — max move 2.9% (need ≤2%)

2026-05-05

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $134

Ceiling $140

Range 4.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $134 by end of day

What Happened

$141.44

+6.94%

Closed 5.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +6.9%

2026-05-04

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $125

Ceiling $135

Range 7.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $125–$135 for 5 days

What Happened

$137.30

+3.02%

Broke down — max move 6.1% (need ≤2%)

2026-05-01

📌 PIN

Strength 15%

Magnet

Floor $125

Ceiling $140

Range 11.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $125 by end of day

What Happened

$133.27

+1.35%

Closed 6.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.3%

2026-04-30

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $136

Ceiling $140

Range 3.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $136–$140 for 5 days

What Happened

$141.00

+6.92%

2026-04-29

📌 PIN

Strength 15%

Magnet

Floor $125

Ceiling $140

Range 11.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $140 by end of day

What Happened

$131.88

+1.11%

Closed 6.2% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.1%

2026-04-28

📌 PIN

Strength 15%

Magnet

Floor $125

Ceiling $140

Range 11.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $140 by end of day

What Happened

$130.43

-0.32%

Closed 7.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.3%

2026-04-27

📌 PIN

Strength 15%

Magnet

Floor $125

Ceiling $140

Range 11.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $140 by end of day

What Happened

$130.85

-1.26%

Closed 6.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.3%

2026-04-24

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $125

Ceiling $140

Range 11.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $140 by end of day

What Happened

$132.52

-2.43%

Closed 5.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.4%

2026-04-23

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $138

Ceiling $140

Range 1.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $138–$140 for 5 days

What Happened

$131.88

+0.14%

Broke up — max move 3.1% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-22

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $140

Ceiling $150

Range 7.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $140–$150 for 5 days

What Happened

$130.43

-4.39%

Broke down — max move 3.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-21

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $140

Ceiling $150

Range 7.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $140–$150 for 5 days

What Happened

$130.85

-3.35%

Broke up — max move 2.7% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-20

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $140

Ceiling $145

Range 3.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $140 by end of day

What Happened

$135.38

-3.42%

Closed 3.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -3.4%

2026-04-17

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $140

Ceiling $150

Range 7.1%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $140 by end of day

What Happened

$140.17

-0.60%

2026-04-16

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $130

Ceiling $140

Range 7.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $130–$140 for 5 days

What Happened

$131.70

-4.97%

Broke up — max move 2.3% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-15

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $130

Ceiling $140

Range 7.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $130–$140 for 5 days

What Happened

$136.42

+2.36%

Broke up — max move 5.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-14

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $130

Ceiling $140

Range 7.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $130 by end of day

What Happened

$133.28

+1.47%

Closed 2.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.5%

2026-04-13

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $130

Ceiling $140

Range 7.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $130 by end of day

What Happened

$131.35

+2.61%

Closed 1.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.6%

2026-04-10

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $130

Ceiling $140

Range 7.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $130–$140 for 5 days

What Happened

$141.01

+10.74%

Broke up — max move 4.7% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-09

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $130

Ceiling $135

Range 3.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $130 by end of day

What Happened

$127.33

-0.27%

Closed 2.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.3%

2026-04-08

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $115

Ceiling $130

Range 12.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $130 by end of day

What Happened

$127.68

+1.88%

Closed 1.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.9%

2026-04-07

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $125

Ceiling $130

Range 4.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $125–$130 for 5 days

What Happened

$131.35

+9.71%

Broke up — max move 6.6% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-06

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $130

Ceiling $135

Range 4.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $130–$135 for 5 days

What Happened

$128.01

+4.66%

Broke down — max move 4.4% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-02

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $125

Ceiling $130

Range 4.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $125–$130 for 5 days

What Happened

$127.33

+4.33%

Broke up — max move 2.7% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-01

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $125

Ceiling $130

Range 4.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $125–$130 for 5 days

What Happened

$127.68

+3.19%

Broke down — max move 3.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-31

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $130

Ceiling $135

Range 4.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $130–$135 for 5 days

What Happened

$125.32

-0.11%

Broke down — max move 2.7% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-30

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $130

Ceiling $135

Range 4.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $130–$135 for 5 days

What Happened

$119.72

-1.85%

Broke up — max move 2.9% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-27

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $140

Range 4.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $135–$140 for 5 days

What Happened

$122.31

-0.31%

Broke down — max move 2.3% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-26

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $130

Ceiling $150

Range 15.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $130 by end of day

What Happened

$122.69

-2.17%

Closed 5.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.2%

2026-03-25

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $130

Ceiling $150

Range 15.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $130 by end of day

What Happened

$125.41

-3.43%

Closed 3.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -3.4%

2026-03-24

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $130

Ceiling $150

Range 15.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $130 by end of day

What Happened

$129.87

+3.50%

2026-03-23

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $125

Ceiling $150

Range 19.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $150 by end of day

What Happened

$125.48

-0.46%

Closed 19.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.5%

2026-03-20

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $125

Ceiling $135

Range 8.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $125 by end of day

What Happened

$126.06

+2.98%

Closed 0.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +3.0%

2026-03-19

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $130

Ceiling $140

Range 8.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $140 by end of day

What Happened

$122.41

-1.99%

Closed 14.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.0%

2026-03-18

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $140

Ceiling $150

Range 7.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $140–$150 for 5 days

What Happened

$129.87

-3.39%

Broke down — max move 8.9% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-17

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $130

Ceiling $150

Range 14.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $150 by end of day

What Happened

$134.43

-1.57%

Closed 11.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.6%

2026-03-16

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $130

Ceiling $150

Range 14.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $150 by end of day

What Happened

$136.57

-0.10%

Closed 9.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.1%