COP Gamma Squeeze, Pin & Wall Analysis

COP ConocoPhillips $117.87 +1.03% (updated 2026-05-12)

Today's OI Read — COP

Where the walls are, where price sits, and what the dealer positioning implies for ConocoPhillips

In Between Walls?

$125

DOM

$130

2ND

$117.87

Outside the dominant wall range — directional momentum more likely than mean reversion.

Magnet Strength Details →

2.51× Very High (>2×)

Current OI 54,144

30d Avg OI 21,588

Elevated OI — dealers carry larger hedges, making price walls structurally stronger.

Put/Call Ratio

0.73

CALL HEAVY

Below 0.8 — call OI dominates. Bullish positioning; dealers are short calls and will sell delta into rallies.

Dominant Wall

$125

▲ Above spot

The highest OI concentration strike — the structural anchor dealers are most committed to hedging.

Distance to #1 Wall

$-7.13

-6.05%

Price is below the dominant wall — acts as resistance.

Wall Skew

+0.504

CALL HEAVY

Call-heavy at the dominant wall — call sellers cap rallies toward it. Acts as resistance.

Today's Top Setup — COP

SQUEEZE, PIN, and CAGE scored 0–100 from OI structure. Highest score = today's highest-conviction setup.

PIN — 53.7% hit rate (n=1,719). CAGE — 45.4% (n=1,161). SQUEEZE — 49.5% (n=5,555). Half hit, half don't — the edge is asymmetric payoff.

Strength scores are locked

PRO

See exactly which setup is most likely — and by how much

Unlock

🚀 SQUEEZE

candidate

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Stock pops ≥+5% within 10 trading days — the kind of move where the winners run far enough to outweigh the misses.

📌 PIN

AUC 0.83 measured

Strength ██%

1d horizon

Target · Price closes within 0.5% of $125 (dom strike) by +1d.

↔ CAGE

AUC 0.55 measured

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Price stays between $125 – $130 through +5d.

Top OI Walls

Largest open interest concentrations · sorted by strike price · * OI projected from prior day

2026-05-12

Rank	Strike	Call OI	Put OI	Total OI	P/C	% of Max
#3	$135 Resistance	3,905	2,405	6,310	0.62	55%
#2	$130 Resistance	6,140	4,628	10,768	0.75	94%
#1	$125 Resistance	8,602	2,839	11,441	0.33	100%
#5	$123 Resistance	2,368	943	3,311	0.40	29%
#4	$120 Resistance	3,847	1,302	5,149	0.34	45%
▶ $117.87

Dealer Magnet Strength

When total OI is elevated vs its 30-day rolling average, dealer hedging is heavier — walls act like magnets. Very High = stronger PIN / CAGE conviction. Near-normal = weaker structural hold.

Current Magnet Strength

Very High (>2×)

Low (<0.7×)

72.4%

261 days · 1d

Normal (0.7–1×)

77.4%

31 days · 1d

Elevated (1–1.5×)

93.3%

15 days · 1d

High (1.5–2×)

95.8%

24 days · 1d

Very High (>2×)

80.0%

71 days · 1d

Containment Rate by OI Magnitude Bucket

OI ratio = today's total OI ÷ 30-day rolling average. Does elevated OI predict price staying inside the dominant wall range?

OI Level	Days	1d	2d	5d	10d	20d
Low (<0.7×)	261	72.4%	64.0%	44.8%	40.2%	24.8%
Normal (0.7–1×)	31	77.4%	64.5%	48.4%	41.9%	38.7%
Elevated (1–1.5×)	15	93.3%	80.0%	60.0%	73.3%	46.7%
High (1.5–2×)	24	95.8%	95.8%	91.7%	79.2%	87.0%
Very High (>2×)	71	80.0%	75.4%	70.6%	61.8%	67.2%

SQUEEZE / PIN / CAGE Setup Backtest — COP

Last 50 sessions — which setup fired, what the score was, and whether it hit. See the actual win/loss record.

0 days ·

Min Strength 60

Magnet:

2026-05-05

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $125

Ceiling $127

Range 1.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $125–$127 for 5 days

What Happened

$117.87

-4.42%

Broke down — max move 7.7% (need ≤2%)

2026-05-04

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $120

Ceiling $125

Range 4.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $125 by end of day

What Happened

$123.32

-1.27%

Closed 1.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.3%

2026-05-01

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $115

Ceiling $125

Range 8.1%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $125 by end of day

What Happened

$124.91

+1.40%

2026-04-30

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $122

Ceiling $129

Range 5.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $122–$129 for 5 days

What Happened

$114.88

-8.67%

Broke down — max move 2.1% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-29

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $122

Ceiling $129

Range 5.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $129 by end of day

What Happened

$125.78

-1.93%

Closed 2.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.9%

2026-04-28

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $122

Ceiling $129

Range 5.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $122–$129 for 5 days

What Happened

$123.32

-0.80%

Broke up — max move 3.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-27

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $129

Ceiling $140

Range 9.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $129 by end of day

What Happened

$124.32

+2.17%

Closed 3.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.2%

2026-04-24

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $129

Ceiling $140

Range 9.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $129 by end of day

What Happened

$121.68

-0.07%

Closed 6.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.1%

2026-04-23

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $119

Ceiling $122

Range 2.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $119–$122 for 5 days

What Happened

$125.78

+1.13%

Broke down — max move 2.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-22

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $115

Ceiling $119

Range 3.3%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $115–$119 for 5 days

What Happened

$128.25

+4.61%

2026-04-21

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $115

Ceiling $119

Range 3.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $119 by end of day

What Happened

$122.60

+1.95%

Closed 3.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.9%

2026-04-20

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $115

Ceiling $130

Range 12.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $115 by end of day

What Happened

$120.26

+3.27%

Closed 4.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +3.3%

2026-04-17

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $115

Ceiling $130

Range 12.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $115 by end of day

What Happened

$116.45

+0.35%

Closed 1.2% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.4%

2026-04-16

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $105

Ceiling $125

Range 16.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $105 by end of day

What Happened

$116.04

-4.55%

Closed 9.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -4.5%

2026-04-15

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $105

Ceiling $125

Range 16.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $105 by end of day

What Happened

$121.57

+2.23%

Closed 13.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.2%

2026-04-14

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $105

Ceiling $125

Range 16.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $105 by end of day

What Happened

$118.92

+0.11%

Closed 11.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.1%

2026-04-13

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $115

Ceiling $125

Range 8.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $125 by end of day

What Happened

$118.79

-3.91%

Closed 5.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -3.9%

2026-04-10

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $115

Ceiling $125

Range 8.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $125 by end of day

What Happened

$123.62

+0.87%

Closed 1.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.9%

2026-04-09

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $130

Ceiling $140

Range 8.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $140 by end of day

What Happened

$122.55

-0.75%

Closed 14.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.7%

2026-04-08

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $130

Ceiling $140

Range 8.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $130–$140 for 5 days

What Happened

$118.92

-5.03%

Broke down — max move 2.1% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-07

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $130

Ceiling $140

Range 7.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $130–$140 for 5 days

What Happened

$118.79

-9.85%

Broke down — max move 7.0% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-06

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $130

Ceiling $140

Range 7.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $130–$140 for 5 days

What Happened

$123.62

-6.09%

Broke up — max move 6.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-02

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $128

Ceiling $136

Range 6.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $128 by end of day

What Happened

$131.64

+0.86%

Closed 2.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.9%

2026-04-01

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $128

Ceiling $136

Range 6.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $128 by end of day

What Happened

$130.52

+1.67%

Closed 2.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.7%

2026-03-31

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $128

Ceiling $145

Range 12.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $145 by end of day

What Happened

$128.38

-2.74%

Closed 12.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.7%

2026-03-30

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $128

Ceiling $145

Range 12.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $145 by end of day

What Happened

$132.00

-0.67%

Closed 9.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.7%

2026-03-27

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $128

Ceiling $129

Range 0.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $128–$129 for 5 days

What Happened

$131.64

-1.61%

Broke down — max move 4.1% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-26

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $128

Ceiling $131

Range 2.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $131 by end of day

What Happened

$133.80

+0.41%

Closed 2.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.4%

2026-03-25

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $131

Ceiling $134

Range 2.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $131 by end of day

What Happened

$133.25

+3.35%

Closed 1.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +3.4%

2026-03-24

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $131

Ceiling $134

Range 2.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $131 by end of day

What Happened

$128.93

-0.32%

Closed 1.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.3%

2026-03-23

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $125

Ceiling $131

Range 4.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $125–$131 for 5 days

What Happened

$132.89

+4.48%

Broke up — max move 4.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-20

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $125

Ceiling $131

Range 4.7%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $125–$131 for 5 days

What Happened

$133.80

+5.42%

2026-03-19

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $105

Ceiling $110

Range 4.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $105–$110 for 5 days

What Happened

$133.25

+5.74%

Broke up — max move 2.6% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-18

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $105

Ceiling $110

Range 4.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $105–$110 for 5 days

What Happened

$128.93

+4.27%

Broke up — max move 2.9% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-17

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $105

Ceiling $110

Range 4.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $105–$110 for 5 days

What Happened

$129.35

+5.27%

Broke up — max move 3.3% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-16

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $105

Ceiling $110

Range 4.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $105–$110 for 5 days

What Happened

$127.19

+4.84%

Broke up — max move 3.9% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-13

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $105

Ceiling $110

Range 4.1%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $105–$110 for 5 days

What Happened

$126.92

+4.13%

2026-03-12

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $122

Ceiling $126

Range 3.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $122–$126 for 5 days

What Happened

$126.02

+4.79%

Broke up — max move 2.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-11

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $122

Ceiling $126

Range 3.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $122–$126 for 5 days

What Happened

$123.65

+5.66%

Broke up — max move 4.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-10

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $122

Ceiling $126

Range 3.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $122–$126 for 5 days

What Happened

$122.87

+7.64%

Broke up — max move 6.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-09

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $113

Ceiling $122

Range 7.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $113–$122 for 5 days

What Happened

$121.32

+3.67%

Broke down — max move 2.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-06

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $113

Ceiling $118

Range 4.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $113–$118 for 5 days

What Happened

$121.89

+4.12%

Broke down — max move 2.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-05

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $110

Ceiling $119

Range 7.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $110–$119 for 5 days

What Happened

$120.26

+2.94%

Broke up — max move 2.3% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-04

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $110

Ceiling $119

Range 7.8%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $110–$119 for 5 days

What Happened

$117.03

+1.19%

2026-03-03

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $110

Ceiling $113

Range 2.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $110–$113 for 5 days

What Happened

$114.15

-3.69%

Broke down — max move 2.4% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-02

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $112

Ceiling $113

Range 0.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $112–$113 for 5 days

What Happened

$117.03

-1.02%

Broke up — max move 2.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-02-27

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $111

Ceiling $113

Range 1.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $113 by end of day

What Happened

$118.24

+4.21%

Closed 4.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +4.2%

2026-02-26

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $105

Ceiling $113

Range 7.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $105–$113 for 5 days

What Happened

$116.82

+5.53%

Broke up — max move 7.1% (need ≤2%)

2026-02-25

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $105

Ceiling $113

Range 7.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $105–$113 for 5 days

What Happened

$115.65

+5.13%

Broke up — max move 7.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-02-24

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $105

Ceiling $113

Range 7.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $105–$113 for 5 days

What Happened

$118.52

+7.17%

Broke down — max move 2.6% (need ≤2%)