IBM Gamma Squeeze, Pin & Wall Analysis

IBM IBM $219.22 -2.32% (updated 2026-05-12)

Today's OI Read — IBM

Where the walls are, where price sits, and what the dealer positioning implies for IBM

In Between Walls?

$235

2ND

$265

DOM

$219.22

Outside the dominant wall range — directional momentum more likely than mean reversion.

Magnet Strength Details →

3.03× Very High (>2×)

Current OI 69,302

30d Avg OI 22,905

Elevated OI — dealers carry larger hedges, making price walls structurally stronger.

Put/Call Ratio

0.69

CALL HEAVY

Below 0.8 — call OI dominates. Bullish positioning; dealers are short calls and will sell delta into rallies.

Dominant Wall

$265

▲ Above spot

The highest OI concentration strike — the structural anchor dealers are most committed to hedging.

Distance to #1 Wall

$-45.78

-20.88%

Price is below the dominant wall — acts as resistance.

Wall Skew

+0.994

CALL HEAVY

Call-heavy at the dominant wall — call sellers cap rallies toward it. Acts as resistance.

Today's Top Setup — IBM

SQUEEZE, PIN, and CAGE scored 0–100 from OI structure. Highest score = today's highest-conviction setup.

PIN — 53.7% hit rate (n=1,719). CAGE — 45.4% (n=1,161). SQUEEZE — 49.5% (n=5,555). Half hit, half don't — the edge is asymmetric payoff.

Strength scores are locked

PRO

See exactly which setup is most likely — and by how much

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🚀 SQUEEZE

candidate

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Stock pops ≥+5% within 10 trading days — the kind of move where the winners run far enough to outweigh the misses.

📌 PIN

AUC 0.83 measured

Strength ██%

1d horizon

Target · Price closes within 0.5% of $265 (dom strike) by +1d.

↔ CAGE

AUC 0.55 measured

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Price stays between $235 – $265 through +5d.

No cage setup today — walls are 13.7% apart. Dealers only defend tight ranges (<8%).

Top OI Walls

Largest open interest concentrations · sorted by strike price · * OI projected from prior day

2026-05-12

Rank	Strike	Call OI	Put OI	Total OI	P/C	% of Max
#1	$265 Resistance	10,275	30	10,305	0.00	100%
#5	$250 Resistance	3,424	2,231	5,655	0.65	55%
#4	$240 Resistance	4,783	896	5,679	0.19	55%
#2	$235 Resistance	7,230	618	7,848	0.09	76%
▶ $219.22
#3	$205 Support	0	6,023	6,023	—	58%

Dealer Magnet Strength

When total OI is elevated vs its 30-day rolling average, dealer hedging is heavier — walls act like magnets. Very High = stronger PIN / CAGE conviction. Near-normal = weaker structural hold.

Current Magnet Strength

Very High (>2×)

Low (<0.7×)

73.3%

202 days · 1d

Normal (0.7–1×)

72.3%

65 days · 1d

Elevated (1–1.5×)

82.6%

46 days · 1d

High (1.5–2×)

70.6%

17 days · 1d

Very High (>2×)

77.8%

73 days · 1d

Containment Rate by OI Magnitude Bucket

OI ratio = today's total OI ÷ 30-day rolling average. Does elevated OI predict price staying inside the dominant wall range?

OI Level	Days	1d	2d	5d	10d	20d
Low (<0.7×)	202	73.3%	61.4%	49.5%	40.8%	30.1%
Normal (0.7–1×)	65	72.3%	61.5%	47.7%	32.3%	21.7%
Elevated (1–1.5×)	46	82.6%	71.7%	47.7%	48.8%	38.1%
High (1.5–2×)	17	70.6%	64.7%	47.1%	52.9%	40.0%
Very High (>2×)	73	77.8%	69.0%	55.7%	48.6%	32.9%

SQUEEZE / PIN / CAGE Setup Backtest — IBM

Last 50 sessions — which setup fired, what the score was, and whether it hit. See the actual win/loss record.

0 days ·

Min Strength 60

Magnet:

2026-05-05

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $225

Ceiling $240

Range 6.5%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $225–$240 for 5 days

What Happened

$219.22

-4.28%

2026-05-04

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $225

Ceiling $240

Range 6.5%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $225–$240 for 5 days

What Happened

$223.55

-2.58%

2026-05-01

↔ CAGE

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $220

Ceiling $225

Range 2.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $220–$225 for 5 days

What Happened

$229.76

-1.05%

Broke down — max move 2.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-30

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $230

Ceiling $240

Range 4.3%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $230–$240 for 5 days

What Happened

$231.31

+0.14%

2026-04-29

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $230

Ceiling $240

Range 4.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $230–$240 for 5 days

What Happened

$225.74

-0.60%

Broke up — max move 2.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-28

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $230

Ceiling $240

Range 4.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $230–$240 for 5 days

What Happened

$229.03

-1.72%

Broke down — max move 2.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-27

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $230

Ceiling $240

Range 4.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $230–$240 for 5 days

What Happened

$229.48

+0.63%

Broke up — max move 2.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-24

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $240

Ceiling $275

Range 15.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $240 by end of day

What Happened

$228.05

-1.69%

Closed 5.2% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.7%

2026-04-23

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $230

Ceiling $270

Range 17.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $230 by end of day

What Happened

$231.98

+0.39%

Closed 0.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.4%

2026-04-22

↔ CAGE

Strength 40%

Magnet

Floor $220

Ceiling $240

Range 7.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $220–$240 for 5 days

What Happened

$227.10

-9.83%

Broke down — max move 9.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-21

↔ CAGE

Strength 40%

Magnet

Floor $220

Ceiling $240

Range 7.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $220–$240 for 5 days

What Happened

$233.04

-8.85%

Broke down — max move 9.6% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-20

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $220

Ceiling $255

Range 13.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $220 by end of day

What Happened

$255.68

+0.78%

Closed 14.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.8%

2026-04-17

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $220

Ceiling $255

Range 13.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $220 by end of day

What Happened

$253.71

+0.09%

Closed 13.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.1%

2026-04-16

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $245

Ceiling $255

Range 4.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $245–$255 for 5 days

What Happened

$231.08

-7.94%

2026-04-15

📌 PIN

Strength 80%

Magnet

Floor $245

Ceiling $255

Range 4.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $245 by end of day

What Happened

$251.00

+2.53%

Closed 2.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.5%

2026-04-14

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $245

Ceiling $255

Range 4.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $245–$255 for 5 days

What Happened

$255.68

+6.41%

Broke up — max move 5.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-13

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $245

Ceiling $255

Range 4.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $245–$255 for 5 days

What Happened

$253.71

+6.68%

Broke up — max move 5.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-10

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $245

Ceiling $255

Range 4.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $245–$255 for 5 days

What Happened

$253.47

+9.84%

Broke up — max move 6.1% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-09

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $245

Ceiling $250

Range 2.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $245–$250 for 5 days

What Happened

$251.00

+5.83%

Broke down — max move 2.7% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-08

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $250

Ceiling $260

Range 4.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $250–$260 for 5 days

What Happened

$244.80

+1.27%

Broke down — max move 4.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-07

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $250

Ceiling $260

Range 4.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $250–$260 for 5 days

What Happened

$240.27

-1.96%

Broke down — max move 5.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-06

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $250

Ceiling $260

Range 4.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $250 by end of day

What Happened

$245.07

-0.68%

Closed 2.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.7%

2026-04-02

📌 PIN

Strength 65%

Magnet

Floor $245

Ceiling $250

Range 2.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $250 by end of day

What Happened

$246.74

-0.57%

Closed 1.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.6%

2026-04-01

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $245

Ceiling $250

Range 2.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $245–$250 for 5 days

What Happened

$237.18

-2.45%

Broke up — max move 2.1% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-31

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $245

Ceiling $250

Range 2.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $245–$250 for 5 days

What Happened

$241.74

-0.27%

Broke up — max move 2.4% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-30

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $240

Ceiling $268

Range 11.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $268 by end of day

What Happened

$242.39

+2.17%

Closed 10.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.2%

2026-03-27

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $240

Ceiling $265

Range 10.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $265 by end of day

What Happened

$237.25

+0.39%

Closed 11.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.4%

2026-03-26

📌 PIN

Strength 60%

Magnet

Floor $240

Ceiling $250

Range 4.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $240 by end of day

What Happened

$236.34

-2.21%

Closed 1.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.2%

2026-03-25

📌 PIN

Strength 70%

Magnet

Floor $240

Ceiling $250

Range 4.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $240 by end of day

What Happened

$241.67

+0.12%

Closed 0.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.1%

2026-03-24

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $240

Ceiling $250

Range 4.2%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $240–$250 for 5 days

What Happened

$242.39

+0.75%

2026-03-23

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $240

Ceiling $250

Range 4.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $240–$250 for 5 days

What Happened

$237.25

-4.50%

Broke down — max move 3.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-20

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $220

Ceiling $240

Range 8.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $240 by end of day

What Happened

$248.44

+2.76%

Closed 3.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.8%

2026-03-19

↔ CAGE

Strength 40%

Magnet

Floor $265

Ceiling $280

Range 6.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $265–$280 for 5 days

What Happened

$241.67

-3.47%

Broke down — max move 3.9% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-18

↔ CAGE

Strength 40%

Magnet

Floor $265

Ceiling $280

Range 6.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $265–$280 for 5 days

What Happened

$241.39

-4.06%

Broke down — max move 3.9% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-17

↔ CAGE

Strength 40%

Magnet

Floor $265

Ceiling $280

Range 5.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $265–$280 for 5 days

What Happened

$240.59

-6.06%

Broke down — max move 5.6% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-16

↔ CAGE

Strength 40%

Magnet

Floor $265

Ceiling $280

Range 6.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $265–$280 for 5 days

What Happened

$248.44

-0.32%

Broke up — max move 2.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-13

↔ CAGE

Strength 40%

Magnet

Floor $265

Ceiling $280

Range 6.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $265–$280 for 5 days

What Happened

$241.77

-1.83%

Broke up — max move 4.0% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-12

↔ CAGE

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $235

Ceiling $240

Range 2.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $235–$240 for 5 days

What Happened

$250.37

+1.09%

Broke down — max move 3.4% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-11

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $240

Ceiling $268

Range 11.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $240 by end of day

What Happened

$247.68

-0.48%

Closed 3.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.5%

2026-03-10

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $260

Ceiling $265

Range 2.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $260–$265 for 5 days

What Happened

$256.11

+2.36%

2026-03-09

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $260

Ceiling $265

Range 2.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $260–$265 for 5 days

What Happened

$249.25

-1.61%

Broke down — max move 2.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-06

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $240

Ceiling $265

Range 9.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $265 by end of day

What Happened

$253.33

-2.13%

Closed 4.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.1%

2026-03-05

↔ CAGE

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $240

Ceiling $248

Range 2.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $240–$248 for 5 days

What Happened

$247.68

-3.46%

Broke up — max move 2.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-04

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $235

Ceiling $248

Range 5.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $248 by end of day

What Happened

$256.55

+2.60%

Closed 3.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.6%

2026-03-03

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $235

Ceiling $248

Range 5.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $248 by end of day

What Happened

$250.06

+1.95%

Closed 1.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.9%

2026-03-02

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $235

Ceiling $248

Range 5.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $235–$248 for 5 days

What Happened

$253.33

+5.83%

Broke up — max move 7.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-02-27

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $235

Ceiling $242

Range 3.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $235–$242 for 5 days

What Happened

$258.85

+7.76%

Broke down — max move 4.1% (need ≤2%)

2026-02-26

↔ CAGE

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $240

Ceiling $245

Range 2.1%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $240–$245 for 5 days

What Happened

$256.55

+6.01%

2026-02-25

↔ CAGE

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $230

Ceiling $240

Range 4.2%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $230–$240 for 5 days

What Happened

$250.06

+5.27%

2026-02-24

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $200

Ceiling $230

Range 13.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $200 by end of day

What Happened

$237.54

+3.58%

Closed 16.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +3.6%