IWM Gamma Squeeze, Pin & Wall Analysis

IWM Russell 2000 ETF $282.57 -0.52% (updated 2026-05-12)

Today's OI Read — IWM

Where the walls are, where price sits, and what the dealer positioning implies for Russell 2000 ETF

In Between Walls?

$250

DOM

$258

2ND

$282.57

Outside the dominant wall range — directional momentum more likely than mean reversion.

Magnet Strength Details →

2.94× Very High (>2×)

Current OI 2,139,016

30d Avg OI 726,592

Elevated OI — dealers carry larger hedges, making price walls structurally stronger.

Put/Call Ratio

3.36

PUT HEAVY

Above 1.2 — more put OI than calls. Hedging demand elevated; market participants are positioned defensively.

Dominant Wall

$250

▼ Below spot

The highest OI concentration strike — the structural anchor dealers are most committed to hedging.

Distance to #1 Wall

$+32.57

+11.53%

Price is above the dominant wall — acts as support.

Wall Skew

-0.779

PUT HEAVY

Put-heavy at the dominant wall — put sellers defend this level. Acts as structural support/magnet.

Today's Top Setup — IWM

SQUEEZE, PIN, and CAGE scored 0–100 from OI structure. Highest score = today's highest-conviction setup.

PIN — 53.7% hit rate (n=1,719). CAGE — 45.4% (n=1,161). SQUEEZE — 49.5% (n=5,555). Half hit, half don't — the edge is asymmetric payoff.

Strength scores are locked

PRO

See exactly which setup is most likely — and by how much

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🚀 SQUEEZE

candidate

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Stock pops ≥+5% within 10 trading days — the kind of move where the winners run far enough to outweigh the misses.

📌 PIN

AUC 0.83 measured

Strength ██%

1d horizon

Target · Price closes within 0.5% of $250 (dom strike) by +1d.

↔ CAGE

AUC 0.55 measured

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Price stays between $250 – $258 through +5d.

Top OI Walls

Largest open interest concentrations · sorted by strike price

2026-05-12

Rank	Strike	Call OI	Put OI	Total OI	P/C	% of Max
▶ $282.57
#5	$275 Support	41,040	55,682	96,722	1.36	85%
#4	$266 Support	2,549	96,777	99,326	37.97	87%
#3	$264 Support	2,249	102,720	104,969	45.67	92%
#2	$258 Support	2,444	109,541	111,985	44.82	98%
#1	$250 Support	12,581	101,121	113,702	8.04	100%

Dealer Magnet Strength

When total OI is elevated vs its 30-day rolling average, dealer hedging is heavier — walls act like magnets. Very High = stronger PIN / CAGE conviction. Near-normal = weaker structural hold.

Current Magnet Strength

Very High (>2×)

Low (<0.7×)

76.6%

248 days · 1d

Normal (0.7–1×)

76.1%

46 days · 1d

Elevated (1–1.5×)

81.8%

11 days · 1d

High (1.5–2×)

100.0%

10 days · 1d

Very High (>2×)

79.3%

88 days · 1d

Containment Rate by OI Magnitude Bucket

OI ratio = today's total OI ÷ 30-day rolling average. Does elevated OI predict price staying inside the dominant wall range?

OI Level	Days	1d	2d	5d	10d	20d
Low (<0.7×)	248	76.6%	67.7%	57.3%	42.3%	29.6%
Normal (0.7–1×)	46	76.1%	71.7%	63.0%	30.4%	30.4%
Elevated (1–1.5×)	11	81.8%	63.6%	54.5%	36.4%	20.0%
High (1.5–2×)	10	100.0%	80.0%	70.0%	80.0%	55.6%
Very High (>2×)	88	79.3%	80.2%	68.2%	54.1%	29.4%

SQUEEZE / PIN / CAGE Setup Backtest — IWM

Last 50 sessions — which setup fired, what the score was, and whether it hit. See the actual win/loss record.

0 days ·

Min Strength 60

Magnet:

2026-05-05

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $249

Ceiling $266

Range 6.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $249–$266 for 5 days

What Happened

$282.57

+0.00%

2026-05-04

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $249

Ceiling $266

Range 6.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $249–$266 for 5 days

What Happened

$285.33

+2.68%

Broke up — max move 3.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-05-01

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $249

Ceiling $266

Range 6.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $249–$266 for 5 days

What Happened

$284.17

+1.75%

Broke down — max move 2.7% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-30

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $265

Ceiling $270

Range 1.8%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $265–$270 for 5 days

What Happened

$282.26

+1.54%

2026-04-29

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $270

Ceiling $280

Range 3.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $270–$280 for 5 days

What Happened

$286.80

+5.41%

Broke up — max move 2.6% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-28

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $260

Ceiling $280

Range 7.3%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $260–$280 for 5 days

What Happened

$282.56

+3.16%

2026-04-27

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $260

Ceiling $280

Range 7.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $280 by end of day

What Happened

$273.91

-1.17%

Closed 2.2% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.2%

2026-04-24

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $270

Ceiling $280

Range 3.6%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $270–$280 for 5 days

What Happened

$279.28

+0.95%

2026-04-23

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $264

Ceiling $270

Range 2.2%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $264–$270 for 5 days

What Happened

$277.97

+0.89%

2026-04-22

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $264

Ceiling $270

Range 2.2%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $264–$270 for 5 days

What Happened

$272.08

-1.59%

2026-04-21

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $256

Ceiling $270

Range 5.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $270 by end of day

What Happened

$276.48

+0.72%

Closed 2.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.7%

2026-04-20

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $268

Ceiling $270

Range 0.7%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $268–$270 for 5 days

What Happened

$277.14

-0.08%

2026-04-17

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $250

Ceiling $256

Range 2.2%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $250–$256 for 5 days

What Happened

$276.65

+0.32%

2026-04-16

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $240

Ceiling $245

Range 1.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $240–$245 for 5 days

What Happened

$275.52

+2.06%

Broke up — max move 2.7% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-15

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $240

Ceiling $245

Range 1.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $240–$245 for 5 days

What Happened

$276.48

+2.63%

Broke up — max move 3.0% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-14

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $240

Ceiling $245

Range 1.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $240–$245 for 5 days

What Happened

$274.51

+2.15%

Broke up — max move 2.6% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-13

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $234

Ceiling $270

Range 13.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $234 by end of day

What Happened

$268.72

+1.38%

Closed 13.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.4%

2026-04-10

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $235

Ceiling $245

Range 3.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $235–$245 for 5 days

What Happened

$275.78

+5.54%

Broke up — max move 3.1% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-09

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $235

Ceiling $247

Range 4.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $235–$247 for 5 days

What Happened

$269.95

+3.05%

Broke down — max move 2.6% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-08

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $235

Ceiling $240

Range 1.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $235–$240 for 5 days

What Happened

$269.39

+3.42%

2026-04-07

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $237

Ceiling $245

Range 3.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $237–$245 for 5 days

What Happened

$268.72

+6.25%

Broke up — max move 3.6% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-06

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $237

Ceiling $240

Range 1.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $237–$240 for 5 days

What Happened

$265.07

+5.04%

Broke up — max move 3.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-02

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $240

Ceiling $245

Range 2.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $240–$245 for 5 days

What Happened

$261.30

+3.98%

Broke up — max move 3.7% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-01

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $230

Ceiling $240

Range 4.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $230–$240 for 5 days

What Happened

$261.96

+4.97%

2026-03-31

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $230

Ceiling $240

Range 4.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $230–$240 for 5 days

What Happened

$260.47

+5.03%

2026-03-30

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $230

Ceiling $240

Range 4.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $240 by end of day

What Happened

$248.00

+3.50%

Closed 3.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +3.5%

2026-03-27

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $230

Ceiling $240

Range 4.1%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $240 by end of day

What Happened

$239.61

-1.44%

2026-03-26

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $230

Ceiling $240

Range 4.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $230–$240 for 5 days

What Happened

$251.29

+1.56%

Broke down — max move 3.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-25

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $240

Ceiling $243

Range 1.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $240–$243 for 5 days

What Happened

$249.56

-0.90%

Broke down — max move 4.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-24

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $235

Ceiling $240

Range 2.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $235–$240 for 5 days

What Happened

$248.00

-0.31%

Broke up — max move 2.3% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-23

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $235

Ceiling $240

Range 2.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $235–$240 for 5 days

What Happened

$239.61

-3.17%

2026-03-20

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $235

Ceiling $240

Range 2.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $235–$240 for 5 days

What Happened

$243.10

+0.36%

Broke up — max move 4.0% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-19

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $240

Ceiling $250

Range 4.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $240–$250 for 5 days

What Happened

$247.44

-0.08%

Broke down — max move 2.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-18

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $240

Ceiling $250

Range 4.1%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $240–$250 for 5 days

What Happened

$251.82

+2.36%

2026-03-17

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $240

Ceiling $250

Range 4.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $240–$250 for 5 days

What Happened

$248.78

-0.51%

Broke down — max move 3.1% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-16

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $230

Ceiling $240

Range 4.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $230–$240 for 5 days

What Happened

$247.45

-0.59%

2026-03-13

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $230

Ceiling $240

Range 4.1%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $230–$240 for 5 days

What Happened

$242.22

-1.77%

2026-03-12

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $230

Ceiling $240

Range 4.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $230–$240 for 5 days

What Happened

$247.63

+0.09%

2026-03-11

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $230

Ceiling $240

Range 4.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $230–$240 for 5 days

What Happened

$246.02

-2.70%

Broke down — max move 2.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-10

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $230

Ceiling $240

Range 3.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $230–$240 for 5 days

What Happened

$250.05

-1.31%

Broke down — max move 2.7% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-09

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $246

Ceiling $255

Range 3.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $255 by end of day

What Happened

$253.36

-0.10%

Closed 0.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.1%

2026-03-06

📌 PIN

Strength 45%

Magnet

Floor $246

Ceiling $255

Range 3.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $255 by end of day

What Happened

$253.62

+1.09%

Closed 0.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.1%

2026-03-05

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $246

Ceiling $255

Range 3.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $255 by end of day

What Happened

$250.89

-2.29%

Closed 1.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.3%

2026-03-04

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $246

Ceiling $255

Range 3.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $246–$255 for 5 days

What Happened

$252.85

-3.40%

Broke down — max move 4.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-03

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $246

Ceiling $255

Range 3.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $255 by end of day

What Happened

$261.76

+0.97%

Closed 2.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.0%

2026-03-02

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $248

Ceiling $257

Range 3.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $248–$257 for 5 days

What Happened

$253.62

-3.86%

Broke down — max move 2.7% (need ≤2%)

2026-02-27

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $248

Ceiling $257

Range 3.4%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $248–$257 for 5 days

What Happened

$250.89

-4.02%

2026-02-26

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $248

Ceiling $257

Range 3.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $248–$257 for 5 days

What Happened

$256.76

-3.47%

Broke down — max move 2.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-02-25

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $248

Ceiling $257

Range 3.4%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $248–$257 for 5 days

What Happened

$261.76

-1.07%

2026-02-24

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $248

Ceiling $257

Range 3.4%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $248–$257 for 5 days

What Happened

$259.24

-1.55%