MRK Gamma Squeeze, Pin & Wall Analysis

MRK Merck $112.37 +0.78% (updated 2026-05-12)

Today's OI Read — MRK

Where the walls are, where price sits, and what the dealer positioning implies for Merck

In Between Walls?

$115

2ND

$120

DOM

$112.37

Outside the dominant wall range — directional momentum more likely than mean reversion.

Magnet Strength Details →

1.66× High (1.5–2×)

Current OI 42,735

30d Avg OI 25,736

Elevated OI — dealers carry larger hedges, making price walls structurally stronger.

Put/Call Ratio

0.66

CALL HEAVY

Below 0.8 — call OI dominates. Bullish positioning; dealers are short calls and will sell delta into rallies.

Dominant Wall

$120

▲ Above spot

The highest OI concentration strike — the structural anchor dealers are most committed to hedging.

Distance to #1 Wall

$-7.63

-6.79%

Price is below the dominant wall — acts as resistance.

Wall Skew

+0.652

CALL HEAVY

Call-heavy at the dominant wall — call sellers cap rallies toward it. Acts as resistance.

Today's Top Setup — MRK

SQUEEZE, PIN, and CAGE scored 0–100 from OI structure. Highest score = today's highest-conviction setup.

PIN — 53.7% hit rate (n=1,719). CAGE — 45.4% (n=1,161). SQUEEZE — 49.5% (n=5,555). Half hit, half don't — the edge is asymmetric payoff.

Strength scores are locked

PRO

See exactly which setup is most likely — and by how much

Unlock

🚀 SQUEEZE

candidate

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Stock pops ≥+5% within 10 trading days — the kind of move where the winners run far enough to outweigh the misses.

📌 PIN

AUC 0.83 measured

Strength ██%

1d horizon

Target · Price closes within 0.5% of $120 (dom strike) by +1d.

↔ CAGE

AUC 0.55 measured

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Price stays between $115 – $120 through +5d.

Top OI Walls

Largest open interest concentrations · sorted by strike price · * OI projected from prior day

2026-05-12

Rank	Strike	Call OI	Put OI	Total OI	P/C	% of Max
#3	$130 Resistance	3,965	0	3,965	0.00	76%
#4	$126 Resistance	3,537	0	3,537	0.00	68%
#1	$120 Resistance	4,323	910	5,233	0.21	100%
#2	$115 Resistance	2,606	2,109	4,715	0.81	90%
#5	$113 Resistance	1,214	2,210	3,424	1.82	65%
▶ $112.37

Dealer Magnet Strength

When total OI is elevated vs its 30-day rolling average, dealer hedging is heavier — walls act like magnets. Very High = stronger PIN / CAGE conviction. Near-normal = weaker structural hold.

Current Magnet Strength

High (1.5–2×)

Low (<0.7×)

80.8%

234 days · 1d

Normal (0.7–1×)

79.4%

34 days · 1d

Elevated (1–1.5×)

72.5%

40 days · 1d

High (1.5–2×)

81.8%

23 days · 1d

Very High (>2×)

78.9%

71 days · 1d

Containment Rate by OI Magnitude Bucket

OI ratio = today's total OI ÷ 30-day rolling average. Does elevated OI predict price staying inside the dominant wall range?

OI Level	Days	1d	2d	5d	10d	20d
Low (<0.7×)	234	80.8%	73.5%	58.1%	47.0%	34.2%
Normal (0.7–1×)	34	79.4%	67.6%	40.6%	35.5%	38.7%
Elevated (1–1.5×)	40	72.5%	60.0%	27.5%	35.0%	30.0%
High (1.5–2×)	23	81.8%	61.9%	65.0%	45.0%	55.0%
Very High (>2×)	71	78.9%	67.6%	60.6%	50.7%	46.4%

SQUEEZE / PIN / CAGE Setup Backtest — MRK

Last 50 sessions — which setup fired, what the score was, and whether it hit. See the actual win/loss record.

0 days ·

Min Strength 60

Magnet:

2026-05-05

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $112

Ceiling $118

Range 5.3%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $112–$118 for 5 days

What Happened

$112.37

-0.69%

2026-05-04

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $112

Ceiling $118

Range 5.3%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $112–$118 for 5 days

What Happened

$111.28

-1.62%

2026-05-01

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $112

Ceiling $118

Range 5.3%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $112–$118 for 5 days

What Happened

$111.38

-0.70%

2026-04-30

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $120

Ceiling $125

Range 4.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $120–$125 for 5 days

What Happened

$112.30

+2.86%

Broke up — max move 3.6% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-29

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $120

Ceiling $125

Range 4.5%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $120–$125 for 5 days

What Happened

$113.56

+2.35%

2026-04-28

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $120

Ceiling $125

Range 4.5%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $120–$125 for 5 days

What Happened

$113.15

+2.84%

2026-04-27

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $120

Ceiling $125

Range 4.5%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $120–$125 for 5 days

What Happened

$113.11

+2.61%

2026-04-24

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $120

Ceiling $125

Range 4.5%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $120–$125 for 5 days

What Happened

$112.16

+0.23%

2026-04-23

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $115

Ceiling $124

Range 7.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $115 by end of day

What Happened

$111.90

-2.37%

Closed 2.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.4%

2026-04-22

📌 PIN

Strength 40%

Magnet

Floor $115

Ceiling $124

Range 8.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $115 by end of day

What Happened

$114.62

+1.53%

2026-04-21

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $115

Ceiling $119

Range 3.6%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $115–$119 for 5 days

What Happened

$110.03

-2.25%

2026-04-20

↔ CAGE

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $115

Ceiling $116

Range 0.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $115–$116 for 5 days

What Happened

$110.23

-5.87%

Broke down — max move 3.9% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-17

📌 PIN

Strength 30%

Magnet

Floor $115

Ceiling $126

Range 9.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $115 by end of day

What Happened

$117.10

-1.65%

Closed 1.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.7%

2026-04-16

📌 PIN

Strength 15%

Magnet

Floor $100

Ceiling $130

Range 26.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $100 by end of day

What Happened

$119.07

+3.13%

Closed 16.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +3.1%

2026-04-15

📌 PIN

Strength 15%

Magnet

Floor $100

Ceiling $130

Range 25.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $100 by end of day

What Happened

$115.46

-2.07%

Closed 13.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.1%

2026-04-14

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $100

Ceiling $130

Range 25.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $100 by end of day

What Happened

$117.90

-1.72%

Closed 14.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.7%

2026-04-13

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $100

Ceiling $130

Range 25.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $100 by end of day

What Happened

$119.96

-0.16%

Closed 16.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.2%

2026-04-10

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $126

Ceiling $127

Range 0.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $126–$127 for 5 days

What Happened

$119.07

-1.94%

Broke down — max move 2.9% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-09

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $126

Ceiling $127

Range 0.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $126–$127 for 5 days

What Happened

$115.46

-5.89%

Broke down — max move 2.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-08

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $120

Ceiling $127

Range 5.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $120–$127 for 5 days

What Happened

$117.90

-4.29%

Broke down — max move 2.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-07

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $120

Ceiling $127

Range 5.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $120–$127 for 5 days

What Happened

$119.96

+0.57%

Broke up — max move 3.3% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-06

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $120

Ceiling $127

Range 5.8%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $120–$127 for 5 days

What Happened

$120.15

-0.58%

2026-04-02

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $117

Ceiling $122

Range 4.1%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $117–$122 for 5 days

What Happened

$121.42

+0.46%

2026-04-01

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $117

Ceiling $122

Range 4.1%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $117–$122 for 5 days

What Happened

$122.68

+1.52%

2026-03-31

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $117

Ceiling $122

Range 4.2%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $117–$122 for 5 days

What Happened

$123.18

+2.40%

2026-03-30

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $117

Ceiling $122

Range 4.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $117 by end of day

What Happened

$120.29

+1.85%

Closed 2.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.9%

2026-03-27

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $117

Ceiling $127

Range 8.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $117 by end of day

What Happened

$118.10

-1.28%

Closed 0.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.3%

2026-03-26

📌 PIN

Strength 45%

Magnet

Floor $117

Ceiling $121

Range 3.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $121 by end of day

What Happened

$119.63

+0.59%

Closed 1.2% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.6%

2026-03-25

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $120

Ceiling $121

Range 0.8%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $120–$121 for 5 days

What Happened

$120.84

+1.23%

2026-03-24

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $117

Ceiling $121

Range 3.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $117–$121 for 5 days

What Happened

$120.29

+3.37%

Broke up — max move 2.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-23

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $117

Ceiling $121

Range 3.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $117–$121 for 5 days

What Happened

$118.10

+2.09%

Broke up — max move 3.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-20

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $114

Ceiling $121

Range 6.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $114–$121 for 5 days

What Happened

$119.63

+4.77%

Broke up — max move 4.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-19

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $115

Ceiling $120

Range 4.4%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $115–$120 for 5 days

What Happened

$118.93

+4.14%

2026-03-18

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $115

Ceiling $120

Range 4.4%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $115–$120 for 5 days

What Happened

$119.37

+4.25%

2026-03-17

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $115

Ceiling $120

Range 4.3%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $115–$120 for 5 days

What Happened

$116.37

+0.43%

2026-03-16

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $115

Ceiling $120

Range 4.3%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $115–$120 for 5 days

What Happened

$115.68

+0.22%

2026-03-13

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $100

Ceiling $105

Range 4.3%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $100–$105 for 5 days

What Happened

$114.18

-1.24%

2026-03-12

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $115

Ceiling $128

Range 11.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $128 by end of day

What Happened

$115.61

-0.26%

Closed 10.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.3%

2026-03-11

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $115

Ceiling $128

Range 11.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $128 by end of day

What Happened

$115.91

-0.26%

Closed 10.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.3%

2026-03-10

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $115

Ceiling $128

Range 11.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $128 by end of day

What Happened

$116.21

-0.75%

Closed 10.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.8%

2026-03-09

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $118

Ceiling $128

Range 8.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $128 by end of day

What Happened

$117.09

-0.02%

Closed 9.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.0%

2026-03-06

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $118

Ceiling $128

Range 8.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $128 by end of day

What Happened

$117.11

+1.14%

Closed 9.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.1%

2026-03-05

📌 PIN

Strength 15%

Magnet

Floor $106

Ceiling $129

Range 19.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $129 by end of day

What Happened

$115.79

-0.24%

Closed 11.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.2%

2026-03-04

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $119

Ceiling $129

Range 8.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $129 by end of day

What Happened

$116.07

-3.50%

Closed 10.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -3.5%

2026-03-03

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $119

Ceiling $129

Range 8.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $129 by end of day

What Happened

$120.28

+0.38%

Closed 7.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.4%

2026-03-02

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $119

Ceiling $129

Range 8.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $129 by end of day

What Happened

$119.83

-1.30%

Closed 7.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.3%

2026-02-27

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $119

Ceiling $120

Range 0.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $119–$120 for 5 days

What Happened

$115.79

-6.49%

Broke down — max move 3.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-02-26

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $121

Ceiling $129

Range 6.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $121–$129 for 5 days

What Happened

$116.07

-2.71%

Broke up — max move 3.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-02-25

📌 PIN

Strength 60%

Magnet

Floor $121

Ceiling $125

Range 3.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $121 by end of day

What Happened

$119.30

-2.58%

Closed 1.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.6%

2026-02-24

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $121

Ceiling $129

Range 6.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $121–$129 for 5 days

What Happened

$119.83

-3.31%

Broke down — max move 3.7% (need ≤2%)