MSTR Gamma Squeeze, Pin & Wall Analysis

MSTR MicroStrategy $184.42 -3.61% (updated 2026-05-12)

Today's OI Read — MSTR

Where the walls are, where price sits, and what the dealer positioning implies for MicroStrategy

In Between Walls?

$190

2ND

$200

DOM

$184.42

Outside the dominant wall range — directional momentum more likely than mean reversion.

Magnet Strength Details →

1.18× Elevated (1–1.5×)

Current OI 323,441

30d Avg OI 274,182

Slightly above average — mild additional pinning force at key strikes.

Put/Call Ratio

0.26

CALL HEAVY

Below 0.8 — call OI dominates. Bullish positioning; dealers are short calls and will sell delta into rallies.

Dominant Wall

$200

▲ Above spot

The highest OI concentration strike — the structural anchor dealers are most committed to hedging.

Distance to #1 Wall

$-15.58

-8.45%

Price is below the dominant wall — acts as resistance.

Wall Skew

+0.873

CALL HEAVY

Call-heavy at the dominant wall — call sellers cap rallies toward it. Acts as resistance.

Today's Top Setup — MSTR

SQUEEZE, PIN, and CAGE scored 0–100 from OI structure. Highest score = today's highest-conviction setup.

PIN — 53.7% hit rate (n=1,719). CAGE — 45.4% (n=1,161). SQUEEZE — 49.5% (n=5,555). Half hit, half don't — the edge is asymmetric payoff.

Strength scores are locked

PRO

See exactly which setup is most likely — and by how much

Unlock

🚀 SQUEEZE

candidate

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Stock pops ≥+5% within 10 trading days — the kind of move where the winners run far enough to outweigh the misses.

📌 PIN

AUC 0.83 measured

Strength ██%

1d horizon

Target · Price closes within 0.5% of $200 (dom strike) by +1d.

↔ CAGE

AUC 0.55 measured

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Price stays between $190 – $200 through +5d.

Top OI Walls

Largest open interest concentrations · sorted by strike price · * OI projected from prior day

2026-05-12

Rank	Strike	Call OI	Put OI	Total OI	P/C	% of Max
#1	$200 Resistance	39,090	2,646	41,736	0.07	100%
#5	$192 Resistance	19,458	33	19,491	0.00	47%
#2	$190 Resistance	25,159	1,862	27,021	0.07	65%
#4	$188 Resistance	20,020	852	20,872	0.04	50%
▶ $184.42
#3	$182 Support	18,195	5,000	23,195	0.27	56%

Dealer Magnet Strength

When total OI is elevated vs its 30-day rolling average, dealer hedging is heavier — walls act like magnets. Very High = stronger PIN / CAGE conviction. Near-normal = weaker structural hold.

Current Magnet Strength

Elevated (1–1.5×)

Low (<0.7×)

77.6%

67 days · 1d

Normal (0.7–1×)

73.5%

98 days · 1d

Elevated (1–1.5×)

64.6%

182 days · 1d

High (1.5–2×)

75.0%

36 days · 1d

Very High (>2×)

63.2%

19 days · 1d

Containment Rate by OI Magnitude Bucket

OI ratio = today's total OI ÷ 30-day rolling average. Does elevated OI predict price staying inside the dominant wall range?

OI Level	Days	1d	2d	5d	10d	20d
Low (<0.7×)	67	77.6%	73.1%	65.7%	53.0%	41.5%
Normal (0.7–1×)	98	73.5%	73.5%	56.2%	42.4%	19.1%
Elevated (1–1.5×)	182	64.6%	55.0%	52.5%	43.0%	38.7%
High (1.5–2×)	36	75.0%	44.4%	36.1%	41.7%	38.9%
Very High (>2×)	19	63.2%	52.6%	42.1%	15.8%	0.0%

SQUEEZE / PIN / CAGE Setup Backtest — MSTR

Last 50 sessions — which setup fired, what the score was, and whether it hit. See the actual win/loss record.

0 days ·

Min Strength 60

Magnet:

2026-05-05

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $180

Ceiling $188

Range 4.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $180–$188 for 5 days

What Happened

$184.42

-1.33%

Broke down — max move 3.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-05-04

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $180

Ceiling $188

Range 4.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $180–$188 for 5 days

What Happened

$195.94

+6.61%

Broke up — max move 2.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-05-01

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $168

Ceiling $170

Range 1.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $168–$170 for 5 days

What Happened

$187.59

+5.88%

Broke up — max move 5.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-30

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $178

Ceiling $185

Range 4.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $178–$185 for 5 days

What Happened

$179.84

+8.70%

Broke up — max move 13.0% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-29

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $178

Ceiling $185

Range 4.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $178–$185 for 5 days

What Happened

$186.82

+18.10%

Broke up — max move 16.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-28

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $178

Ceiling $185

Range 4.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $178–$185 for 5 days

What Happened

$186.90

+12.79%

Broke down — max move 6.9% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-27

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $178

Ceiling $185

Range 4.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $178–$185 for 5 days

What Happened

$183.80

+8.63%

Broke down — max move 6.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-24

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $185

Ceiling $200

Range 8.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $185 by end of day

What Happened

$169.20

-1.06%

Closed 9.2% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.1%

2026-04-23

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $180

Ceiling $185

Range 2.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $180–$185 for 5 days

What Happened

$165.45

-4.07%

Broke down — max move 3.9% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-22

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $168

Ceiling $175

Range 4.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $168–$175 for 5 days

What Happened

$158.19

-11.80%

Broke down — max move 5.7% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-21

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $168

Ceiling $175

Range 4.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $168–$175 for 5 days

What Happened

$165.71

+1.06%

Broke up — max move 9.4% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-20

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $149

Ceiling $158

Range 5.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $149–$158 for 5 days

What Happened

$169.20

-0.94%

Broke down — max move 5.0% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-17

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $150

Ceiling $158

Range 4.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $150–$158 for 5 days

What Happened

$171.02

+2.70%

Broke up — max move 7.7% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-16

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $142

Range 4.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $135–$142 for 5 days

What Happened

$172.47

+15.80%

Broke up — max move 14.7% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-15

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $142

Range 4.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $135–$142 for 5 days

What Happened

$179.36

+24.95%

Broke up — max move 19.0% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-14

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $142

Range 5.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $135 by end of day

What Happened

$143.54

+4.46%

Closed 6.2% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +4.5%

2026-04-13

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $142

Range 5.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $135 by end of day

What Happened

$137.41

+3.82%

Closed 1.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +3.8%

2026-04-10

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $142

Range 5.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $135–$142 for 5 days

What Happened

$166.52

+29.45%

Broke up — max move 11.6% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-09

📌 PIN

Strength 15%

Magnet

Floor $125

Ceiling $136

Range 8.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $125 by end of day

What Happened

$128.64

-0.17%

Closed 2.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.2%

2026-04-08

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $125

Ceiling $136

Range 8.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $125 by end of day

What Happened

$128.86

+0.44%

Closed 3.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.4%

2026-04-07

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $125

Ceiling $136

Range 8.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $125 by end of day

What Happened

$128.30

+3.70%

Closed 2.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +3.7%

2026-04-06

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $125

Ceiling $136

Range 8.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $125 by end of day

What Happened

$123.72

-3.11%

Closed 1.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -3.1%

2026-04-02

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $130

Ceiling $137

Range 5.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $130–$137 for 5 days

What Happened

$128.64

+7.35%

Broke up — max move 7.1% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-01

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $130

Ceiling $137

Range 5.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $130–$137 for 5 days

What Happened

$128.86

+4.95%

Broke down — max move 4.0% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-31

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $130

Ceiling $138

Range 6.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $130–$138 for 5 days

What Happened

$128.30

+2.80%

Broke down — max move 4.0% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-30

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $130

Ceiling $138

Range 6.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $130–$138 for 5 days

What Happened

$123.72

+1.88%

Broke up — max move 2.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-27

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $138

Ceiling $145

Range 5.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $138–$145 for 5 days

What Happened

$127.69

+1.32%

Broke down — max move 3.6% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-26

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $142

Ceiling $147

Range 3.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $142–$147 for 5 days

What Happened

$119.83

-9.85%

Broke down — max move 8.6% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-25

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $142

Ceiling $149

Range 5.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $142–$149 for 5 days

What Happened

$122.78

-11.75%

Broke down — max move 12.7% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-24

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $142

Ceiling $149

Range 5.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $142–$149 for 5 days

What Happened

$124.80

-8.40%

Broke up — max move 7.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-23

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $142

Ceiling $149

Range 5.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $142–$149 for 5 days

What Happened

$121.44

-12.13%

Broke down — max move 3.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-20

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $142

Ceiling $150

Range 5.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $142–$150 for 5 days

What Happened

$126.03

-7.10%

Broke up — max move 2.6% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-19

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $140

Ceiling $160

Range 14.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $160 by end of day

What Happened

$135.66

-1.87%

Closed 17.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.9%

2026-03-18

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $140

Ceiling $160

Range 14.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $160 by end of day

What Happened

$138.24

-1.65%

Closed 15.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.7%

2026-03-17

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $150

Ceiling $160

Range 6.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $150–$160 for 5 days

What Happened

$136.25

-9.34%

Broke down — max move 9.7% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-16

📌 PIN

Strength 15%

Magnet

Floor $140

Ceiling $160

Range 13.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $160 by end of day

What Happened

$150.28

+1.87%

Closed 6.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.9%

2026-03-13

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $140

Ceiling $160

Range 14.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $160 by end of day

What Happened

$147.52

+5.62%

Closed 8.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +5.6%

2026-03-12

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $147

Ceiling $155

Range 5.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $147–$155 for 5 days

What Happened

$138.24

+0.66%

Broke up — max move 9.4% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-11

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $147

Ceiling $155

Range 5.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $147–$155 for 5 days

What Happened

$140.56

+1.61%

Broke down — max move 6.6% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-10

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $147

Ceiling $155

Range 5.8%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $147–$155 for 5 days

What Happened

$150.28

+8.54%

2026-03-09

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $147

Ceiling $155

Range 5.8%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $147–$155 for 5 days

What Happened

$147.52

+6.17%

2026-03-06

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $147

Ceiling $155

Range 6.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $147–$155 for 5 days

What Happened

$139.67

+4.60%

Broke up — max move 4.1% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-05

↔ CAGE

Strength 40%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $142

Range 5.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $135–$142 for 5 days

What Happened

$137.34

-1.77%

Broke down — max move 4.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-04

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $142

Range 4.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $135–$142 for 5 days

What Happened

$138.33

-5.54%

Broke down — max move 8.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-03

↔ CAGE

Strength 40%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $142

Range 5.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $135–$142 for 5 days

What Happened

$138.46

+4.36%

Broke up — max move 10.4% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-02

↔ CAGE

Strength 40%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $142

Range 5.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $135–$142 for 5 days

What Happened

$138.95

+0.94%

Broke down — max move 6.4% (need ≤2%)

2026-02-27

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $105

Ceiling $125

Range 15.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $105 by end of day

What Happened

$137.65

+6.29%

Closed 25.2% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +6.3%

2026-02-26

↔ CAGE

Strength 40%

Magnet

Floor $130

Ceiling $137

Range 5.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $130–$137 for 5 days

What Happened

$139.81

+4.81%

Broke down — max move 3.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-02-25

↔ CAGE

Strength 40%

Magnet

Floor $130

Ceiling $137

Range 5.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $130–$137 for 5 days

What Happened

$146.44

+7.95%

Broke down — max move 4.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-02-24

↔ CAGE

Strength 40%

Magnet

Floor $130

Ceiling $137

Range 5.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $130–$137 for 5 days

What Happened

$132.68

+6.48%

Broke up — max move 8.9% (need ≤2%)