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NVDA $220.78 +1.02% (updated 2026-05-12)

Today's OI Read — NVDA

Where the walls are, where price sits, and what the dealer positioning implies for NVIDIA

In Between Walls?
NO
$190
2ND
$200
DOM
$220.78

Outside the dominant wall range — directional momentum more likely than mean reversion.

Magnet Strength
1.61× High (1.5–2×)
Current OI 1,552,866
30d Avg OI 962,025

Elevated OI — dealers carry larger hedges, making price walls structurally stronger.

Put/Call Ratio
0.42
CALL HEAVY

Below 0.8 — call OI dominates. Bullish positioning; dealers are short calls and will sell delta into rallies.

Dominant Wall
$200
▼ Below spot

The highest OI concentration strike — the structural anchor dealers are most committed to hedging.

Distance to #1 Wall
$+20.78
+9.41%

Price is above the dominant wall — acts as support.

Wall Skew
+0.399
CALL HEAVY

Call-heavy at the dominant wall — call sellers cap rallies toward it. Acts as resistance.

Today's Top Setup — NVDA

SQUEEZE, PIN, and CAGE scored 0–100 from OI structure. Highest score = today's highest-conviction setup.

PIN — 53.7% hit rate (n=1,719). CAGE — 45.4% (n=1,161). SQUEEZE — 49.5% (n=5,555). Half hit, half don't — the edge is asymmetric payoff.

Strength scores are locked

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🚀 SQUEEZE
candidate
Strength ██%
5d horizon
Target · Stock pops ≥+5% within 10 trading days — the kind of move where the winners run far enough to outweigh the misses.
📌 PIN
AUC 0.83 measured
Strength ██%
1d horizon
Target · Price closes within 0.5% of $200 (dom strike) by +1d.
↔ CAGE
AUC 0.55 measured
Strength ██%
5d horizon
Target · Price stays between $190 – $200 through +5d.

Top OI Walls

Largest open interest concentrations · sorted by strike price · * OI projected from prior day

2026-05-12
Rank Strike Call OI Put OI Total OI P/C % of Max
▶ $220.78
#5 $220 Support 99,110 5,061 104,171 0.05
68%
#4 $210 Support 81,484 24,154 105,638 0.30
69%
#1 $200 Support 107,573 46,258 153,831 0.43
100%
#2 $190 Support 41,168 95,166 136,334 2.31
89%
#3 $180 Support 36,431 76,800 113,231 2.11
74%

SQUEEZE / PIN / CAGE Setup Backtest — NVDA

Last 50 sessions — which setup fired, what the score was, and whether it hit. See the actual win/loss record.

0 days ·
Min Strength 60
Magnet:
2026-05-05
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $190
Ceiling $205
Range 7.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $190–$205 for 5 days
What Happened
$220.78
+12.36%
Broke up — max move 9.5% (need ≤2%)
2026-05-04
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $205
Ceiling $210
Range 2.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $205–$210 for 5 days
What Happened
$219.44
+10.56%
Broke down — max move 6.6% (need ≤2%)
2026-05-01
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $200
Ceiling $205
Range 2.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $200–$205 for 5 days
What Happened
$215.20
+8.44%
Broke up — max move 4.7% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-30
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $195
Ceiling $220
Range 12.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $220 by end of day
What Happened
$198.45
-0.56%
Closed 10.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.6%
2026-04-29
📌 PIN
Strength 15%
Magnet
Floor $195
Ceiling $220
Range 11.9%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $220 by end of day
What Happened
$199.57
-4.63%
Closed 9.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -4.6%
2026-04-28
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $195
Ceiling $220
Range 11.7%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $220 by end of day
What Happened
$209.25
-1.84%
Closed 5.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.8%
2026-04-27
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $195
Ceiling $212
Range 8.1%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $195 by end of day
What Happened
$213.17
-1.59%
Closed 8.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.6%
2026-04-24
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $195
Ceiling $200
Range 2.4%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $195–$200 for 5 days
What Happened
$198.45
-4.72%
Broke up — max move 4.0% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-23
📌 PIN
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $190
Ceiling $202
Range 6.3%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $202 by end of day
What Happened
$208.27
+4.32%
Closed 2.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +4.3%
2026-04-22
📌 PIN
Strength 75%
Magnet
Floor $200
Ceiling $202
Range 1.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $202 by end of day
What Happened
$199.64
-1.41%
Closed 1.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.4%
2026-04-21
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $200
Ceiling $202
Range 1.3%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $200–$202 for 5 days
What Happened
$213.17
+6.65%
Broke up — max move 4.2% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-20
📌 PIN
Strength 75%
Magnet
Floor $182
Ceiling $202
Range 9.9%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $202 by end of day
What Happened
$199.88
-1.08%
Closed 1.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.1%
2026-04-17
📌 PIN
Strength 75%
Magnet
Floor $182
Ceiling $202
Range 9.9%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $202 by end of day
What Happened
$202.06
+0.19%
2026-04-16
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $185
Ceiling $190
Range 2.5%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $185–$190 for 5 days
What Happened
$199.64
+0.65%
2026-04-15
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $185
Ceiling $190
Range 2.5%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $185–$190 for 5 days
What Happened
$202.50
+1.83%
2026-04-14
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $185
Ceiling $190
Range 2.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $185–$190 for 5 days
What Happened
$199.88
+1.71%
Broke up — max move 2.6% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-13
📌 PIN
Strength 75%
Magnet
Floor $185
Ceiling $190
Range 2.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $190 by end of day
What Happened
$196.51
+3.80%
Closed 3.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +3.8%
2026-04-10
📌 PIN
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $185
Ceiling $190
Range 2.7%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $185 by end of day
What Happened
$189.31
+0.36%
Closed 2.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.4%
2026-04-09
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $178
Ceiling $180
Range 1.4%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $178–$180 for 5 days
What Happened
$198.35
+7.85%
Broke up — max move 6.9% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-08
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $178
Ceiling $180
Range 1.4%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $178–$180 for 5 days
What Happened
$198.87
+9.22%
Broke up — max move 4.0% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-07
📌 PIN
Strength 75%
Magnet
Floor $175
Ceiling $178
Range 1.4%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $178 by end of day
What Happened
$182.08
+2.23%
Closed 2.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.2%
2026-04-06
📌 PIN
Strength 75%
Magnet
Floor $178
Ceiling $182
Range 2.8%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $178 by end of day
What Happened
$178.10
+0.26%
2026-04-02
📌 PIN
Strength 60%
Magnet
Floor $175
Ceiling $180
Range 2.8%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $175 by end of day
What Happened
$177.64
+0.14%
Closed 1.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.1%
2026-04-01
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $175
Ceiling $180
Range 2.8%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $175–$180 for 5 days
What Happened
$183.91
+4.64%
2026-03-31
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $170
Ceiling $180
Range 5.7%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $170–$180 for 5 days
What Happened
$182.08
+4.40%
2026-03-30
📌 PIN
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $160
Ceiling $180
Range 12.1%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $160 by end of day
What Happened
$174.40
+5.59%
Closed 8.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +5.6%
2026-03-27
📌 PIN
Strength 30%
Magnet
Floor $160
Ceiling $180
Range 11.9%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $160 by end of day
What Happened
$165.17
-1.40%
Closed 3.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.4%
2026-03-26
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $180
Ceiling $185
Range 2.9%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $180–$185 for 5 days
What Happened
$177.39
+3.59%
Broke down — max move 3.5% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-25
📌 PIN
Strength 60%
Magnet
Floor $180
Ceiling $185
Range 2.8%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $180 by end of day
What Happened
$171.24
-4.16%
Closed 4.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -4.2%
2026-03-24
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $180
Ceiling $185
Range 2.9%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $180–$185 for 5 days
What Happened
$174.40
-0.46%
Broke up — max move 4.4% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-23
📌 PIN
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $150
Ceiling $180
Range 17.1%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $150 by end of day
What Happened
$175.20
-0.25%
Closed 14.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.3%
2026-03-20
↔ CAGE
Strength 75%
Magnet
Floor $180
Ceiling $185
Range 2.9%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $180–$185 for 5 days
What Happened
$167.52
-3.00%
Broke up — max move 3.5% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-19
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $190
Ceiling $200
Range 5.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $190–$200 for 5 days
What Happened
$171.24
-4.10%
Broke down — max move 3.3% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-18
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $190
Ceiling $200
Range 5.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $190–$200 for 5 days
What Happened
$178.68
-0.95%
Broke down — max move 4.3% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-17
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $190
Ceiling $200
Range 5.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $190–$200 for 5 days
What Happened
$175.20
-3.70%
Broke down — max move 5.1% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-16
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $190
Ceiling $200
Range 5.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $190–$200 for 5 days
What Happened
$175.64
-4.14%
Broke down — max move 2.5% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-13
↔ CAGE
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $190
Ceiling $200
Range 5.5%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $190–$200 for 5 days
What Happened
$172.70
-4.19%
2026-03-12
📌 PIN
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $185
Ceiling $192
Range 4.1%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $185 by end of day
What Happened
$180.25
-1.58%
Closed 2.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.6%
2026-03-11
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $185
Ceiling $192
Range 4.0%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $185–$192 for 5 days
What Happened
$180.40
-3.03%
Broke down — max move 3.1% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-10
📌 PIN
Strength 80%
Magnet
Floor $185
Ceiling $192
Range 4.1%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $185 by end of day
What Happened
$186.03
+0.68%
Closed 0.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.7%
2026-03-09
↔ CAGE
Strength 75%
Magnet
Floor $165
Ceiling $168
Range 1.4%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $165–$168 for 5 days
What Happened
$183.22
+0.31%
2026-03-06
📌 PIN
Strength 30%
Magnet
Floor $168
Ceiling $195
Range 15.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $168 by end of day
What Happened
$182.65
+2.72%
Closed 8.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.7%
2026-03-05
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $155
Ceiling $190
Range 19.1%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $190 by end of day
What Happened
$177.82
-3.01%
Closed 6.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -3.0%
2026-03-04
📌 PIN
Strength 10%
Magnet
Floor $155
Ceiling $190
Range 19.1%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $190 by end of day
What Happened
$183.34
+0.16%
Closed 3.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.2%
2026-03-03
📌 PIN
Strength 30%
Magnet
Floor $170
Ceiling $190
Range 11.1%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $190 by end of day
What Happened
$183.04
+1.66%
Closed 3.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.7%
2026-03-02
📌 PIN
Strength 20%
Magnet
Floor $155
Ceiling $170
Range 8.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $155 by end of day
What Happened
$180.05
-1.33%
Closed 13.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.3%
2026-02-27
📌 PIN
Strength 30%
Magnet
Floor $170
Ceiling $190
Range 11.3%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $170 by end of day
What Happened
$182.48
+2.99%
Closed 7.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +3.0%
2026-02-26
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $195
Ceiling $200
Range 2.7%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $195–$200 for 5 days
What Happened
$183.34
-0.84%
Broke down — max move 4.2% (need ≤2%)
2026-02-25
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $195
Ceiling $200
Range 2.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $195–$200 for 5 days
What Happened
$183.04
-6.40%
Broke down — max move 9.4% (need ≤2%)
2026-02-24
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $195
Ceiling $200
Range 2.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $195–$200 for 5 days
What Happened
$180.05
-6.64%
Broke up — max move 8.1% (need ≤2%)