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TGT $121.80 +0.66% (updated 2026-05-12)

Today's OI Read — TGT

Where the walls are, where price sits, and what the dealer positioning implies for Target

In Between Walls?
YES
$120
2ND
$125
DOM
$121.80

Sandwiched between dominant walls — dealer hedging on both sides creates structural pinning.

Magnet Strength
2.01× Very High (>2×)
Current OI 45,786
30d Avg OI 22,756

Elevated OI — dealers carry larger hedges, making price walls structurally stronger.

Put/Call Ratio
0.99
NEUTRAL

Between 0.8–1.2 — balanced positioning. No strong directional lean from options flow alone.

Dominant Wall
$125
▲ Above spot

The highest OI concentration strike — the structural anchor dealers are most committed to hedging.

Distance to #1 Wall
$-3.20
-2.63%

Price is below the dominant wall — acts as resistance.

Wall Skew
+0.523
CALL HEAVY

Call-heavy at the dominant wall — call sellers cap rallies toward it. Acts as resistance.

Today's Top Setup — TGT

SQUEEZE, PIN, and CAGE scored 0–100 from OI structure. Highest score = today's highest-conviction setup.

PIN — 53.7% hit rate (n=1,719). CAGE — 45.4% (n=1,161). SQUEEZE — 49.5% (n=5,555). Half hit, half don't — the edge is asymmetric payoff.

Strength scores are locked

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See exactly which setup is most likely — and by how much

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🚀 SQUEEZE
candidate
Strength ██%
5d horizon
Target · Stock pops ≥+5% within 10 trading days — the kind of move where the winners run far enough to outweigh the misses.
📌 PIN
AUC 0.83 measured
Strength ██%
1d horizon
Target · Price closes within 0.5% of $125 (dom strike) by +1d.
↔ CAGE
AUC 0.55 measured
Strength ██%
5d horizon
Target · Price stays between $120 – $125 through +5d.

Top OI Walls

Largest open interest concentrations · sorted by strike price · * OI projected from prior day

2026-05-12
Rank Strike Call OI Put OI Total OI P/C % of Max
#5 $130 Resistance 3,704 327 4,031 0.09
57%
#1 $125 Resistance 5,362 1,680 7,042 0.31
100%
▶ $121.80
#2 $120 Support 1,858 3,854 5,712 2.07
81%
#4 $110 Support 2,098 1,999 4,097 0.95
58%
#3 $105 Support 467 3,676 4,143 7.87
59%

SQUEEZE / PIN / CAGE Setup Backtest — TGT

Last 50 sessions — which setup fired, what the score was, and whether it hit. See the actual win/loss record.

0 days ·
Min Strength 60
Magnet:
2026-05-05
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $125
Ceiling $131
Range 4.7%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $125–$131 for 5 days
What Happened
$121.80
-5.45%
Broke up — max move 2.8% (need ≤2%)
2026-05-04
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $131
Ceiling $132
Range 0.8%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $131–$132 for 5 days
What Happened
$118.44
-7.29%
2026-05-01
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $131
Ceiling $132
Range 0.8%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $131–$132 for 5 days
What Happened
$125.25
-2.82%
2026-04-30
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $124
Ceiling $130
Range 4.6%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $124–$130 for 5 days
What Happened
$125.88
-2.98%
2026-04-29
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $124
Ceiling $129
Range 3.9%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $124–$129 for 5 days
What Happened
$130.19
+1.81%
2026-04-28
↔ CAGE
Strength 75%
Magnet
Floor $129
Ceiling $130
Range 0.8%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $129–$130 for 5 days
What Happened
$128.82
+1.32%
Broke up — max move 2.1% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-27
↔ CAGE
Strength 75%
Magnet
Floor $129
Ceiling $130
Range 0.8%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $129–$130 for 5 days
What Happened
$127.76
-1.51%
2026-04-24
📌 PIN
Strength 90%
Magnet
Floor $129
Ceiling $132
Range 2.3%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $129 by end of day
What Happened
$129.72
+0.36%
Closed 0.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.4%
2026-04-23
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $125
Ceiling $140
Range 11.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $140 by end of day
What Happened
$129.26
-0.70%
Closed 8.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.7%
2026-04-22
📌 PIN
Strength 15%
Magnet
Floor $125
Ceiling $140
Range 11.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $140 by end of day
What Happened
$130.17
-0.33%
Closed 7.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.3%
2026-04-21
📌 PIN
Strength 15%
Magnet
Floor $125
Ceiling $140
Range 11.4%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $140 by end of day
What Happened
$130.60
-1.14%
Closed 7.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.1%
2026-04-20
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $125
Ceiling $126
Range 0.8%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $125–$126 for 5 days
What Happened
$129.72
-0.35%
2026-04-17
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $115
Ceiling $121
Range 4.7%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $115–$121 for 5 days
What Happened
$129.26
+1.11%
Broke up — max move 3.3% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-16
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $110
Ceiling $115
Range 4.0%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $110–$115 for 5 days
What Happened
$130.17
+5.05%
Broke up — max move 6.6% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-15
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $110
Ceiling $115
Range 4.1%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $110–$115 for 5 days
What Happened
$130.60
+6.29%
Broke up — max move 5.9% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-14
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $110
Ceiling $115
Range 4.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $110–$115 for 5 days
What Happened
$132.10
+10.52%
Broke up — max move 7.0% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-13
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $110
Ceiling $115
Range 4.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $110–$115 for 5 days
What Happened
$130.18
+10.43%
Broke up — max move 5.1% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-10
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $110
Ceiling $115
Range 4.1%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $110–$115 for 5 days
What Happened
$127.84
+4.88%
Broke down — max move 3.3% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-09
📌 PIN
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $120
Ceiling $123
Range 2.4%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $123 by end of day
What Happened
$121.89
-1.73%
Closed 0.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.7%
2026-04-08
📌 PIN
Strength 75%
Magnet
Floor $120
Ceiling $123
Range 2.4%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $123 by end of day
What Happened
$124.03
+0.74%
Closed 0.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.7%
2026-04-07
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $120
Ceiling $123
Range 2.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $120–$123 for 5 days
What Happened
$119.53
+0.01%
Broke up — max move 3.8% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-06
↔ CAGE
Strength 75%
Magnet
Floor $120
Ceiling $121
Range 0.8%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $120–$121 for 5 days
What Happened
$117.88
-3.54%
Broke down — max move 2.2% (need ≤2%)
2026-04-02
📌 PIN
Strength 30%
Magnet
Floor $115
Ceiling $125
Range 8.3%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $115 by end of day
What Happened
$122.21
+1.46%
Closed 6.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.5%
2026-04-01
📌 PIN
Strength 30%
Magnet
Floor $115
Ceiling $125
Range 8.3%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $115 by end of day
What Happened
$120.45
+0.00%
Closed 4.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.0%
2026-03-31
📌 PIN
Strength 15%
Magnet
Floor $115
Ceiling $125
Range 8.3%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $115 by end of day
What Happened
$120.45
-0.62%
Closed 4.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.6%
2026-03-30
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $115
Ceiling $134
Range 16.0%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $115 by end of day
What Happened
$121.20
+2.04%
Closed 5.2% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.0%
2026-03-27
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $110
Ceiling $115
Range 4.2%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $110–$115 for 5 days
What Happened
$122.21
+1.98%
2026-03-26
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $112
Ceiling $115
Range 2.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $112–$115 for 5 days
What Happened
$120.45
+2.95%
Broke up — max move 3.6% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-25
↔ CAGE
Strength 55%
Magnet
Floor $112
Ceiling $115
Range 2.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $112–$115 for 5 days
What Happened
$120.45
+3.51%
Broke up — max move 3.0% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-24
↔ CAGE
Strength 75%
Magnet
Floor $112
Ceiling $115
Range 2.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $112–$115 for 5 days
What Happened
$121.20
+4.55%
Broke up — max move 3.4% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-23
↔ CAGE
Strength 75%
Magnet
Floor $112
Ceiling $115
Range 2.6%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $112–$115 for 5 days
What Happened
$118.78
+3.35%
2026-03-20
📌 PIN
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $115
Ceiling $119
Range 3.5%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $115 by end of day
What Happened
$114.93
+1.47%
2026-03-19
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $110
Ceiling $115
Range 4.4%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $110–$115 for 5 days
What Happened
$117.00
+2.21%
2026-03-18
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $110
Ceiling $115
Range 4.3%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $110–$115 for 5 days
What Happened
$116.37
+1.15%
2026-03-17
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $110
Ceiling $115
Range 4.3%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $110–$115 for 5 days
What Happened
$115.92
-0.72%
Broke down — max move 3.0% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-16
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $110
Ceiling $115
Range 4.3%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $110–$115 for 5 days
What Happened
$114.93
-1.81%
Broke down — max move 2.2% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-13
📌 PIN
Strength 5%
Magnet
Floor $100
Ceiling $110
Range 8.5%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $110 by end of day
What Happened
$117.05
-0.25%
Closed 6.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.2%
2026-03-12
📌 PIN
Strength 50%
Magnet
Floor $110
Ceiling $118
Range 6.9%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $118 by end of day
What Happened
$117.34
+1.37%
Closed 0.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.4%
2026-03-11
📌 PIN
Strength 70%
Magnet
Floor $110
Ceiling $118
Range 6.7%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $118 by end of day
What Happened
$115.75
-2.55%
Closed 1.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.6%
2026-03-10
↔ CAGE
Strength 40%
Magnet
Floor $110
Ceiling $118
Range 6.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $110–$118 for 5 days
What Happened
$116.76
-3.30%
Broke down — max move 4.1% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-09
↔ CAGE
Strength 75%
Magnet
Floor $118
Ceiling $119
Range 0.8%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Stay inside $118–$119 for 5 days
What Happened
$117.05
-2.57%
Broke up — max move 3.7% (need ≤2%)
2026-03-06
↔ CAGE
Strength 75%
Magnet
Floor $115
Ceiling $118
Range 2.5%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $115–$118 for 5 days
What Happened
$117.34
-2.86%
2026-03-05
📌 PIN
Strength 80%
Magnet
Floor $115
Ceiling $120
Range 4.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $120 by end of day
What Happened
$120.79
+0.36%
Closed 0.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.4%
2026-03-04
📌 PIN
Strength 80%
Magnet
Floor $115
Ceiling $120
Range 4.2%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $120 by end of day
What Happened
$120.36
+0.23%
2026-03-03
📌 PIN
Strength 10%
Magnet
Floor $100
Ceiling $115
Range 12.4%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $115 by end of day
What Happened
$120.08
-0.60%
Closed 4.2% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.6%
2026-03-02
📌 PIN
Strength 50%
Magnet
Floor $100
Ceiling $115
Range 13.3%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $115 by end of day
What Happened
$120.80
+6.74%
Closed 5.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +6.7%
2026-02-27
📌 PIN
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $100
Ceiling $115
Range 13.2%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $115 by end of day
What Happened
$113.17
-0.54%
Closed 1.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.5%
2026-02-26
📌 PIN
Strength 15%
Magnet
Floor $110
Ceiling $120
Range 8.7%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $120 by end of day
What Happened
$113.79
-0.87%
Closed 5.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.9%
2026-02-25
📌 PIN
Strength 15%
Magnet
Floor $110
Ceiling $120
Range 8.6%
✗ Miss
Win Criteria
Close within 0.5% of $110 by end of day
What Happened
$114.79
-1.42%
Closed 4.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.4%
2026-02-24
↔ CAGE
Strength 35%
Magnet
Floor $110
Ceiling $115
Range 4.3%
✓ Hit
Win Criteria
Stay inside $110–$115 for 5 days
What Happened
$120.80
+4.57%