TLT Gamma Squeeze, Pin & Wall Analysis

TLT 20yr Treasury ETF $85.65 -0.17% (updated 2026-06-02)

Today's OI Read — TLT

Where the walls are, where price sits, and what the dealer positioning implies for 20yr Treasury ETF

In Between Walls?

YES

$85

2ND

$86

DOM

$85.65

Sandwiched between dominant walls — dealer hedging on both sides creates structural pinning.

Magnet Strength Details →

0.70× Normal (0.7–1×)

Current OI 348,546

30d Avg OI 494,404

Near or below average — wall levels carry typical structural weight.

Put/Call Ratio

0.55

CALL HEAVY

Below 0.8 — call OI dominates. Bullish positioning; dealers are short calls and will sell delta into rallies.

Dominant Wall

$86

▲ Above spot

The highest OI concentration strike — the structural anchor dealers are most committed to hedging.

Distance to #1 Wall

$-0.35

-0.41%

Price is below the dominant wall — acts as resistance.

Wall Skew

+0.849

CALL HEAVY

Call-heavy at the dominant wall — call sellers cap rallies toward it. Acts as resistance.

Today's Top Setup — TLT

SQUEEZE, PIN, and CAGE scored 0–100 from OI structure. Highest score = today's highest-conviction setup.

PIN — 53.7% hit rate (n=1,719). CAGE — 45.4% (n=1,161). SQUEEZE — 49.5% (n=5,555). Half hit, half don't — the edge is asymmetric payoff.

Strength scores are locked

PRO

See exactly which setup is most likely — and by how much

Unlock

🚀 SQUEEZE

candidate

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Stock pops ≥+5% within 10 trading days — the kind of move where the winners run far enough to outweigh the misses.

📌 PIN

AUC 0.83 measured

Strength ██%

1d horizon

Target · Price closes within 0.5% of $86 (dom strike) by +1d.

↔ CAGE

AUC 0.55 measured

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Price stays between $85 – $86 through +5d.

Top OI Walls

Largest open interest concentrations · sorted by strike price

2026-06-02

Rank	Strike	Call OI	Put OI	Total OI	P/C	% of Max
#3	$88 Resistance	26,572	95	26,667	0.00	26%
#1	$86 Resistance	95,711	7,833	103,544	0.08	100%
▶ $85.65
#4	$86 Support	15,935	7,280	23,215	0.46	22%
#2	$85 Support	10,750	16,719	27,469	1.56	27%
#5	$82 Support	634	22,445	23,079	35.40	22%

Dealer Magnet Strength

When total OI is elevated vs its 30-day rolling average, dealer hedging is heavier — walls act like magnets. Very High = stronger PIN / CAGE conviction. Near-normal = weaker structural hold.

Current Magnet Strength

Normal (0.7–1×)

Low (<0.7×)

64.8%

182 days · 1d

Normal (0.7–1×)

67.0%

101 days · 1d

Elevated (1–1.5×)

65.2%

23 days · 1d

High (1.5–2×)

87.5%

32 days · 1d

Very High (>2×)

69.6%

79 days · 1d

Containment Rate by OI Magnitude Bucket

OI ratio = today's total OI ÷ 30-day rolling average. Does elevated OI predict price staying inside the dominant wall range?

OI Level	Days	1d	2d	5d	10d	20d
Low (<0.7×)	182	64.8%	58.0%	43.9%	34.6%	22.9%
Normal (0.7–1×)	101	67.0%	65.0%	54.1%	39.4%	29.2%
Elevated (1–1.5×)	23	65.2%	52.2%	56.5%	47.8%	47.8%
High (1.5–2×)	32	87.5%	81.2%	65.6%	62.5%	56.2%
Very High (>2×)	79	69.6%	58.2%	51.9%	59.5%	48.6%

SQUEEZE / PIN / CAGE Setup Backtest — TLT

Last 50 sessions — which setup fired, what the score was, and whether it hit. See the actual win/loss record.

0 days ·

Min Strength 60

Magnet:

2026-05-26

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $81

Ceiling $85

Range 4.7%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $85 by end of day

What Happened

$85.31

+0.29%

2026-05-22

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $81

Ceiling $85

Range 4.7%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $81–$85 for 5 days

What Happened

$85.54

+1.13%

2026-05-21

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $85

Ceiling $86

Range 1.2%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $85–$86 for 5 days

What Happened

$85.81

+1.96%

2026-05-20

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $85

Ceiling $86

Range 1.2%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $85–$86 for 5 days

What Happened

$85.71

+2.23%

2026-05-19

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $85

Ceiling $86

Range 1.2%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $85–$86 for 5 days

What Happened

$85.31

+2.67%

2026-05-18

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $85

Ceiling $86

Range 1.2%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $85–$86 for 5 days

What Happened

$85.06

+1.67%

2026-05-15

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $88

Range 2.4%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $86–$88 for 5 days

What Happened

$84.58

+1.16%

2026-05-14

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $85

Ceiling $95

Range 11.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $85 by end of day

What Happened

$83.61

-1.45%

Closed 1.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.5%

2026-05-13

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $85

Ceiling $95

Range 11.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $95 by end of day

What Happened

$84.84

+0.02%

Closed 12.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.0%

2026-05-12

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $85

Ceiling $95

Range 11.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $95 by end of day

What Happened

$84.82

-0.20%

Closed 12.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.2%

2026-05-11

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $90

Ceiling $95

Range 5.8%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $90–$95 for 5 days

What Happened

$83.67

-2.20%

2026-05-08

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $87

Ceiling $90

Range 3.5%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $87–$90 for 5 days

What Happened

$83.61

-2.81%

2026-05-07

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $86

Range 0.6%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day

What Happened

$86.03

+0.29%

2026-05-06

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $86

Range 0.6%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day

What Happened

$85.78

-0.41%

2026-05-05

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $86

Range 0.6%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day

What Happened

$86.13

+0.98%

2026-05-04

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $86

Range 0.6%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $86–$86 for 5 days

What Happened

$85.55

+0.71%

2026-05-01

📌 PIN

Strength 90%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $87

Range 1.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day

What Happened

$84.94

-0.84%

Closed 1.2% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.8%

2026-04-30

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $87

Range 1.2%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $86–$87 for 5 days

What Happened

$85.78

-0.04%

2026-04-29

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $87

Range 0.6%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $86–$87 for 5 days

What Happened

$86.13

+0.68%

2026-04-28

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $87

Range 0.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $87 by end of day

What Happened

$85.55

-0.94%

Closed 1.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.9%

2026-04-27

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $87

Range 0.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $87 by end of day

What Happened

$86.36

+0.06%

Closed 0.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.1%

2026-04-24

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $87

Range 0.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $87 by end of day

What Happened

$86.30

-0.36%

Closed 0.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.4%

2026-04-23

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $88

Range 1.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $88 by end of day

What Happened

$86.61

+0.05%

Closed 1.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.1%

2026-04-22

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $88

Range 1.2%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day

What Happened

$86.57

-0.10%

2026-04-21

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $88

Range 1.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $88 by end of day

What Happened

$86.66

-0.09%

Closed 1.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.1%

2026-04-20

📌 PIN

Strength 65%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $88

Range 1.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $88 by end of day

What Happened

$86.74

-0.27%

Closed 0.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.3%

2026-04-17

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $87

Ceiling $89

Range 2.3%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $87 by end of day

What Happened

$86.97

-0.01%

2026-04-16

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $87

Range 1.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day

What Happened

$86.98

+0.92%

Closed 1.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.9%

2026-04-15

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $87

Range 1.2%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day

What Happened

$86.19

-0.67%

2026-04-14

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $87

Range 1.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day

What Happened

$86.77

-0.50%

Closed 0.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.5%

2026-04-13

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $87

Range 1.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day

What Happened

$87.21

+0.57%

Closed 1.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.6%

2026-04-10

📌 PIN

Strength 85%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $87

Range 1.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day

What Happened

$86.71

+0.32%

Closed 0.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.3%

2026-04-09

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $87

Ceiling $88

Range 1.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $87 by end of day

What Happened

$86.43

-0.31%

Closed 0.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.3%

2026-04-08

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $87

Ceiling $88

Range 1.2%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $87 by end of day

What Happened

$86.70

-0.02%

2026-04-07

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $87

Ceiling $88

Range 1.2%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $87 by end of day

What Happened

$86.72

-0.05%

2026-04-06

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $87

Ceiling $88

Range 1.2%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $87 by end of day

What Happened

$86.76

+0.19%

2026-04-02

📌 PIN

Strength 85%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $87

Range 0.6%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $87 by end of day

What Happened

$86.59

-0.18%

2026-04-01

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $87

Range 0.6%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day

What Happened

$86.75

+0.44%

2026-03-31

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $86

Range 0.6%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day

What Happened

$86.37

-0.22%

2026-03-30

📌 PIN

Strength 70%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $87

Range 1.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day

What Happened

$86.56

-0.03%

Closed 0.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.0%

2026-03-27

📌 PIN

Strength 90%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $87

Range 1.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day

What Happened

$86.59

+1.09%

Closed 0.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.1%

2026-03-26

📌 PIN

Strength 80%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $87

Range 1.2%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day

What Happened

$85.65

-0.75%

2026-03-25

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $87

Range 1.2%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day

What Happened

$86.30

-0.51%

2026-03-24

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $86

Ceiling $87

Range 1.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $86 by end of day

What Happened

$86.74

+1.16%

Closed 0.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.2%

2026-03-23

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $88

Ceiling $92

Range 3.5%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $88–$92 for 5 days

What Happened

$86.59

+0.37%

2026-03-20

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $88

Ceiling $89

Range 1.2%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $88–$89 for 5 days

What Happened

$85.65

-0.35%

2026-03-19

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $87

Ceiling $91

Range 4.6%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $87–$91 for 5 days

What Happened

$86.30

-1.34%

2026-03-18

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $85

Ceiling $91

Range 6.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $85–$91 for 5 days

What Happened

$86.74

-0.20%

2026-03-17

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $85

Ceiling $91

Range 6.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $85–$91 for 5 days

What Happened

$85.74

-2.00%

2026-03-16

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $85

Ceiling $91

Range 6.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $85–$91 for 5 days

What Happened

$86.27

-1.01%