TSLA Gamma Squeeze, Pin & Wall Analysis

TSLA Tesla $433.45 -1.80% (updated 2026-05-12)

Today's OI Read — TSLA

Where the walls are, where price sits, and what the dealer positioning implies for Tesla

In Between Walls?

YES

$400

2ND

$450

DOM

$433.45

Sandwiched between dominant walls — dealer hedging on both sides creates structural pinning.

Magnet Strength Details →

1.24× Elevated (1–1.5×)

Current OI 542,046

30d Avg OI 438,632

Slightly above average — mild additional pinning force at key strikes.

Put/Call Ratio

0.48

CALL HEAVY

Below 0.8 — call OI dominates. Bullish positioning; dealers are short calls and will sell delta into rallies.

Dominant Wall

$450

▲ Above spot

The highest OI concentration strike — the structural anchor dealers are most committed to hedging.

Distance to #1 Wall

$-16.55

-3.82%

Price is below the dominant wall — acts as resistance.

Wall Skew

+0.827

CALL HEAVY

Call-heavy at the dominant wall — call sellers cap rallies toward it. Acts as resistance.

Today's Top Setup — TSLA

SQUEEZE, PIN, and CAGE scored 0–100 from OI structure. Highest score = today's highest-conviction setup.

PIN — 53.7% hit rate (n=1,719). CAGE — 45.4% (n=1,161). SQUEEZE — 49.5% (n=5,555). Half hit, half don't — the edge is asymmetric payoff.

Strength scores are locked

PRO

See exactly which setup is most likely — and by how much

Unlock

🚀 SQUEEZE

candidate

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Stock pops ≥+5% within 10 trading days — the kind of move where the winners run far enough to outweigh the misses.

📌 PIN

AUC 0.83 measured

Strength ██%

1d horizon

Target · Price closes within 0.5% of $450 (dom strike) by +1d.

↔ CAGE

AUC 0.55 measured

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Price stays between $400 – $450 through +5d.

No cage setup today — walls are 11.5% apart. Dealers only defend tight ranges (<8%).

Top OI Walls

Largest open interest concentrations · sorted by strike price · * OI projected from prior day

2026-05-12

Rank	Strike	Call OI	Put OI	Total OI	P/C	% of Max
#1	$450 Resistance	32,726	3,107	35,833	0.09	100%
#5	$440 Resistance	20,310	3,210	23,520	0.16	66%
▶ $433.45
#4	$430 Support	18,584	8,710	27,294	0.47	76%
#3	$420 Support	21,349	8,746	30,095	0.41	84%
#2	$400 Support	19,590	15,220	34,810	0.78	97%

Dealer Magnet Strength

When total OI is elevated vs its 30-day rolling average, dealer hedging is heavier — walls act like magnets. Very High = stronger PIN / CAGE conviction. Near-normal = weaker structural hold.

Current Magnet Strength

Elevated (1–1.5×)

Low (<0.7×)

76.4%

72 days · 1d

Normal (0.7–1×)

74.2%

124 days · 1d

Elevated (1–1.5×)

75.5%

156 days · 1d

High (1.5–2×)

81.6%

38 days · 1d

Very High (>2×)

76.9%

13 days · 1d

Containment Rate by OI Magnitude Bucket

OI ratio = today's total OI ÷ 30-day rolling average. Does elevated OI predict price staying inside the dominant wall range?

OI Level	Days	1d	2d	5d	10d	20d
Low (<0.7×)	72	76.4%	63.9%	56.9%	43.7%	37.1%
Normal (0.7–1×)	124	74.2%	63.7%	48.4%	35.2%	44.1%
Elevated (1–1.5×)	156	75.5%	70.8%	57.6%	45.0%	46.2%
High (1.5–2×)	38	81.6%	71.1%	68.4%	60.5%	43.2%
Very High (>2×)	13	76.9%	69.2%	46.2%	15.4%	30.8%

SQUEEZE / PIN / CAGE Setup Backtest — TSLA

Last 50 sessions — which setup fired, what the score was, and whether it hit. See the actual win/loss record.

0 days ·

Min Strength 60

Magnet:

2026-05-05

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $395

Ceiling $400

Range 1.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $395–$400 for 5 days

What Happened

$433.45

+11.32%

Broke up — max move 10.0% (need ≤2%)

2026-05-04

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $410

Range 2.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $400–$410 for 5 days

What Happened

$445.00

+13.37%

Broke down — max move 4.9% (need ≤2%)

2026-05-01

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $420

Range 5.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $400–$420 for 5 days

What Happened

$428.35

+9.60%

Broke up — max move 2.0% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-30

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $380

Ceiling $400

Range 5.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $380–$400 for 5 days

What Happened

$411.79

+7.90%

Broke up — max move 2.9% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-29

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $380

Ceiling $400

Range 5.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $380–$400 for 5 days

What Happened

$398.73

+6.96%

Broke up — max move 5.3% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-28

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $380

Ceiling $400

Range 5.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $380–$400 for 5 days

What Happened

$389.37

+3.55%

Broke down — max move 3.9% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-27

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $380

Ceiling $400

Range 5.3%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $380–$400 for 5 days

What Happened

$392.51

+3.65%

2026-04-24

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $390

Ceiling $400

Range 2.7%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $390–$400 for 5 days

What Happened

$390.82

+3.86%

2026-04-23

↔ CAGE

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $390

Ceiling $400

Range 2.7%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $390–$400 for 5 days

What Happened

$381.63

+2.12%

2026-04-22

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $420

Range 5.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $400–$420 for 5 days

What Happened

$372.80

-3.80%

Broke down — max move 3.6% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-21

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $410

Range 2.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $400–$410 for 5 days

What Happened

$376.02

-2.69%

Broke up — max move 3.3% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-20

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $410

Range 2.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $400–$410 for 5 days

What Happened

$378.67

-3.52%

Broke down — max move 4.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-17

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $420

Range 5.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $400 by end of day

What Happened

$392.50

-2.03%

Closed 1.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.0%

2026-04-16

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $350

Ceiling $400

Range 12.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $400 by end of day

What Happened

$400.62

+3.01%

2026-04-15

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $350

Ceiling $370

Range 5.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $350–$370 for 5 days

What Happened

$387.51

-1.13%

Broke down — max move 2.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-14

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $350

Ceiling $370

Range 5.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $350–$370 for 5 days

What Happened

$386.42

+6.10%

Broke up — max move 10.0% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-13

📌 PIN

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $350

Ceiling $400

Range 14.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $400 by end of day

What Happened

$364.20

+3.34%

Closed 10.2% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +3.3%

2026-04-10

📌 PIN

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $350

Ceiling $400

Range 14.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $400 by end of day

What Happened

$352.42

+0.99%

Closed 13.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.0%

2026-04-09

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $360

Ceiling $370

Range 2.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $360–$370 for 5 days

What Happened

$388.90

+12.52%

Broke up — max move 5.4% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-08

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $360

Ceiling $370

Range 2.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $360–$370 for 5 days

What Happened

$391.95

+14.19%

Broke up — max move 2.7% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-07

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $360

Ceiling $370

Range 2.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $360–$370 for 5 days

What Happened

$364.20

+5.06%

2026-04-06

↔ CAGE

Strength 40%

Magnet

Floor $380

Ceiling $400

Range 5.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $380–$400 for 5 days

What Happened

$352.42

-0.11%

Broke down — max move 2.7% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-02

↔ CAGE

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $370

Ceiling $380

Range 2.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $370–$380 for 5 days

What Happened

$348.95

-3.23%

Broke down — max move 4.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-01

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $370

Ceiling $380

Range 2.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $380 by end of day

What Happened

$360.59

-5.42%

Closed 5.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -5.4%

2026-03-31

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $370

Ceiling $380

Range 2.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $370 by end of day

What Happened

$381.26

+2.56%

Closed 3.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.6%

2026-03-30

↔ CAGE

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $390

Ceiling $400

Range 2.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $390–$400 for 5 days

What Happened

$346.65

-2.43%

Broke up — max move 7.3% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-27

↔ CAGE

Strength 40%

Magnet

Floor $380

Ceiling $400

Range 5.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $380–$400 for 5 days

What Happened

$352.82

-2.49%

Broke down — max move 5.4% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-26

↔ CAGE

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $390

Ceiling $400

Range 2.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $390–$400 for 5 days

What Happened

$360.59

-3.10%

Broke down — max move 4.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-25

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $390

Ceiling $400

Range 2.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $390–$400 for 5 days

What Happened

$381.26

-1.22%

Broke down — max move 7.9% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-24

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $390

Ceiling $400

Range 2.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $390–$400 for 5 days

What Happened

$371.75

-2.94%

Broke up — max move 5.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-23

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $390

Ceiling $400

Range 2.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $390–$400 for 5 days

What Happened

$355.28

-6.71%

Broke up — max move 2.3% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-20

↔ CAGE

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $390

Ceiling $400

Range 2.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $390–$400 for 5 days

What Happened

$361.83

-1.67%

Broke up — max move 4.9% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-19

↔ CAGE

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $410

Range 2.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $400–$410 for 5 days

What Happened

$372.11

-2.15%

Broke down — max move 3.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-18

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $410

Range 2.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $400–$410 for 5 days

What Happened

$385.95

-1.74%

Broke down — max move 6.3% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-17

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $410

Range 2.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $400–$410 for 5 days

What Happened

$383.03

-4.07%

Broke down — max move 7.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-16

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $410

Range 2.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $400–$410 for 5 days

What Happened

$380.85

-3.72%

Broke up — max move 3.9% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-13

↔ CAGE

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $410

Range 2.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $400–$410 for 5 days

What Happened

$367.96

-5.94%

Broke up — max move 2.1% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-12

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $410

Ceiling $420

Range 2.5%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $410–$420 for 5 days

What Happened

$380.30

-3.72%

2026-03-11

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $410

Ceiling $420

Range 2.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $410 by end of day

What Happened

$395.01

-3.14%

Closed 3.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -3.1%

2026-03-10

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $410

Ceiling $420

Range 2.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $410–$420 for 5 days

What Happened

$399.27

+0.01%

Broke up — max move 2.1% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-09

📌 PIN

Strength 90%

Magnet

Floor $395

Ceiling $400

Range 1.3%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $400 by end of day

What Happened

$399.24

+0.14%

2026-03-06

↔ CAGE

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $410

Range 2.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $400–$410 for 5 days

What Happened

$391.20

-1.39%

Broke up — max move 2.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-05

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $420

Range 4.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $400 by end of day

What Happened

$396.73

-2.17%

Closed 0.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.2%

2026-03-04

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $430

Range 7.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $400 by end of day

What Happened

$405.55

-0.10%

Closed 1.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.1%

2026-03-03

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $420

Ceiling $430

Range 2.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $420–$430 for 5 days

What Happened

$399.24

+1.74%

Broke up — max move 3.4% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-02

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $430

Range 7.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $400–$430 for 5 days

What Happened

$398.68

-1.15%

Broke down — max move 2.7% (need ≤2%)

2026-02-27

↔ CAGE

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $420

Ceiling $430

Range 2.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $420–$430 for 5 days

What Happened

$396.73

-1.44%

Broke up — max move 2.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-02-26

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $420

Ceiling $425

Range 1.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $420–$425 for 5 days

What Happened

$405.55

-0.74%

Broke down — max move 4.0% (need ≤2%)

2026-02-25

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $420

Range 4.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $420 by end of day

What Happened

$408.58

-2.11%

Closed 2.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.1%

2026-02-24

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $400

Ceiling $420

Range 4.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $400–$420 for 5 days

What Happened

$392.43

-4.14%