XLE Gamma Squeeze, Pin & Wall Analysis

XLE Energy Select ETF $57.96 +1.35% (updated 2026-06-02)

Today's OI Read — XLE

Where the walls are, where price sits, and what the dealer positioning implies for Energy Select ETF

In Between Walls?

$58

DOM

$59

2ND

$57.96

Outside the dominant wall range — directional momentum more likely than mean reversion.

Magnet Strength Details →

0.54× Low (<0.7×)

Current OI 93,929

30d Avg OI 173,784

Near or below average — wall levels carry typical structural weight.

Put/Call Ratio

0.65

CALL HEAVY

Below 0.8 — call OI dominates. Bullish positioning; dealers are short calls and will sell delta into rallies.

Dominant Wall

$58

▲ Above spot

The highest OI concentration strike — the structural anchor dealers are most committed to hedging.

Distance to #1 Wall

$-0.54

-0.93%

Price is below the dominant wall — acts as resistance.

Wall Skew

+0.715

CALL HEAVY

Call-heavy at the dominant wall — call sellers cap rallies toward it. Acts as resistance.

Today's Top Setup — XLE

SQUEEZE, PIN, and CAGE scored 0–100 from OI structure. Highest score = today's highest-conviction setup.

PIN — 53.7% hit rate (n=1,719). CAGE — 45.4% (n=1,161). SQUEEZE — 49.5% (n=5,555). Half hit, half don't — the edge is asymmetric payoff.

Strength scores are locked

PRO

See exactly which setup is most likely — and by how much

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🚀 SQUEEZE

candidate

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Stock pops ≥+5% within 10 trading days — the kind of move where the winners run far enough to outweigh the misses.

📌 PIN

AUC 0.83 measured

Strength ██%

1d horizon

Target · Price closes within 0.5% of $58 (dom strike) by +1d.

↔ CAGE

AUC 0.55 measured

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Price stays between $58 – $59 through +5d.

Top OI Walls

Largest open interest concentrations · sorted by strike price

2026-06-02

Rank	Strike	Call OI	Put OI	Total OI	P/C	% of Max
#3	$60 Resistance	8,895	431	9,326	0.05	63%
#5	$60 Resistance	7,460	204	7,664	0.03	52%
#2	$59 Resistance	7,308	2,529	9,837	0.35	67%
#1	$58 Resistance	12,656	2,101	14,757	0.17	100%
▶ $57.96
#4	$57 Support	1,171	6,843	8,014	5.84	54%

Dealer Magnet Strength

When total OI is elevated vs its 30-day rolling average, dealer hedging is heavier — walls act like magnets. Very High = stronger PIN / CAGE conviction. Near-normal = weaker structural hold.

Current Magnet Strength

Low (<0.7×)

77.0%

271 days · 1d

Normal (0.7–1×)

68.8%

32 days · 1d

Elevated (1–1.5×)

85.7%

7 days · 1d

High (1.5–2×)

87.5%

16 days · 1d

Very High (>2×)

89.0%

91 days · 1d

Containment Rate by OI Magnitude Bucket

OI ratio = today's total OI ÷ 30-day rolling average. Does elevated OI predict price staying inside the dominant wall range?

OI Level	Days	1d	2d	5d	10d	20d
Low (<0.7×)	271	77.0%	63.9%	46.3%	44.7%	37.5%
Normal (0.7–1×)	32	68.8%	56.2%	46.7%	34.5%	34.5%
Elevated (1–1.5×)	7	85.7%	85.7%	28.6%	28.6%	28.6%
High (1.5–2×)	16	87.5%	81.2%	68.8%	43.8%	38.5%
Very High (>2×)	91	89.0%	84.6%	65.9%	52.7%	49.4%

SQUEEZE / PIN / CAGE Setup Backtest — XLE

Last 50 sessions — which setup fired, what the score was, and whether it hit. See the actual win/loss record.

0 days ·

Min Strength 60

Magnet:

2026-05-26

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $58

Ceiling $60

Range 3.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $58 by end of day

What Happened

$56.99

-1.49%

Closed 1.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.5%

2026-05-22

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $58

Ceiling $60

Range 3.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $58–$60 for 5 days

What Happened

$57.30

-3.68%

Broke down — max move 4.3% (need ≤2%)

2026-05-21

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $57

Ceiling $60

Range 5.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $60 by end of day

What Happened

$59.49

+0.61%

Closed 0.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.6%

2026-05-20

📌 PIN

Strength 90%

Magnet

Floor $57

Ceiling $60

Range 5.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $60 by end of day

What Happened

$59.13

-1.12%

Closed 1.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.1%

2026-05-19

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $57

Ceiling $60

Range 4.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $57–$60 for 5 days

What Happened

$56.99

-7.02%

Broke down — max move 3.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-05-18

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $57

Ceiling $60

Range 5.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $57–$60 for 5 days

What Happened

$57.85

-4.51%

Broke up — max move 2.4% (need ≤2%)

2026-05-15

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $56

Ceiling $57

Range 2.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $56–$57 for 5 days

What Happened

$59.49

+0.08%

Broke up — max move 3.1% (need ≤2%)

2026-05-14

📌 PIN

Strength 15%

Magnet

Floor $55

Ceiling $60

Range 8.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $55 by end of day

What Happened

$59.44

+2.36%

Closed 7.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.4%

2026-05-13

📌 PIN

Strength 15%

Magnet

Floor $55

Ceiling $60

Range 8.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $55 by end of day

What Happened

$58.07

+0.76%

Closed 5.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.8%

2026-05-12

📌 PIN

Strength 15%

Magnet

Floor $55

Ceiling $60

Range 8.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $55 by end of day

What Happened

$57.63

+0.10%

Closed 4.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.1%

2026-05-11

📌 PIN

Strength 15%

Magnet

Floor $55

Ceiling $60

Range 8.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $55 by end of day

What Happened

$57.57

+0.70%

Closed 4.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.7%

2026-05-08

📌 PIN

Strength 50%

Magnet

Floor $55

Ceiling $60

Range 9.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $55 by end of day

What Happened

$57.17

+2.64%

Closed 3.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.6%

2026-05-07

↔ CAGE

Strength 40%

Magnet

Floor $56

Ceiling $60

Range 7.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $56–$60 for 5 days

What Happened

$58.07

+3.79%

Broke down — max move 2.9% (need ≤2%)

2026-05-06

↔ CAGE

Strength 40%

Magnet

Floor $56

Ceiling $60

Range 6.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $56–$60 for 5 days

What Happened

$57.63

+1.11%

Broke down — max move 2.3% (need ≤2%)

2026-05-05

📌 PIN

Strength 70%

Magnet

Floor $56

Ceiling $60

Range 5.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $60 by end of day

What Happened

$57.00

-4.12%

Closed 5.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -4.1%

2026-05-04

📌 PIN

Strength 50%

Magnet

Floor $56

Ceiling $60

Range 5.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $60 by end of day

What Happened

$59.45

+0.10%

Closed 0.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.1%

2026-05-01

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $56

Ceiling $60

Range 6.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $56–$60 for 5 days

What Happened

$55.70

-5.35%

Broke up — max move 3.1% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-30

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $53

Ceiling $55

Range 3.4%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $53–$55 for 5 days

What Happened

$55.95

-6.20%

2026-04-29

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $53

Ceiling $55

Range 3.4%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $53–$55 for 5 days

What Happened

$57.00

-3.44%

2026-04-28

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $53

Ceiling $55

Range 3.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $53–$55 for 5 days

What Happened

$59.45

+3.02%

Broke up — max move 3.4% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-27

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $53

Ceiling $55

Range 3.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $53–$55 for 5 days

What Happened

$59.39

+4.62%

Broke up — max move 5.1% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-24

↔ CAGE

Strength 40%

Magnet

Floor $53

Ceiling $56

Range 6.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $53–$56 for 5 days

What Happened

$58.85

+3.48%

Broke down — max move 3.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-23

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $55

Ceiling $57

Range 3.5%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $55–$57 for 5 days

What Happened

$59.65

+4.69%

2026-04-22

📌 PIN

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $55

Ceiling $60

Range 8.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $55 by end of day

What Happened

$56.98

+0.78%

Closed 3.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.8%

2026-04-21

📌 PIN

Strength 10%

Magnet

Floor $55

Ceiling $60

Range 8.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $60 by end of day

What Happened

$56.54

+1.20%

Closed 6.2% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.2%

2026-04-20

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $63

Ceiling $65

Range 3.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $63–$65 for 5 days

What Happened

$56.77

+3.09%

Broke up — max move 3.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-17

📌 PIN

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $55

Ceiling $60

Range 9.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $60 by end of day

What Happened

$55.07

+0.09%

Closed 9.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.1%

2026-04-16

📌 PIN

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $50

Ceiling $60

Range 17.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $60 by end of day

What Happened

$55.02

-2.76%

Closed 8.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.8%

2026-04-15

📌 PIN

Strength 15%

Magnet

Floor $50

Ceiling $60

Range 17.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $60 by end of day

What Happened

$56.58

+1.47%

Closed 6.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.5%

2026-04-14

📌 PIN

Strength 10%

Magnet

Floor $55

Ceiling $60

Range 8.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $60 by end of day

What Happened

$55.76

-0.34%

Closed 7.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.3%

2026-04-13

📌 PIN

Strength 30%

Magnet

Floor $55

Ceiling $60

Range 8.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $60 by end of day

What Happened

$55.95

-2.03%

Closed 7.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -2.0%

2026-04-10

📌 PIN

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $50

Ceiling $60

Range 17.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $60 by end of day

What Happened

$57.11

+0.30%

Closed 5.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.3%

2026-04-09

↔ CAGE

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $61

Ceiling $62

Range 1.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $61–$62 for 5 days

What Happened

$56.58

-1.31%

Broke down — max move 2.4% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-08

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $61

Ceiling $62

Range 1.7%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $61–$62 for 5 days

What Happened

$55.76

-3.94%

2026-04-07

↔ CAGE

Strength 40%

Magnet

Floor $58

Ceiling $62

Range 6.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $58–$62 for 5 days

What Happened

$55.95

-7.00%

Broke down — max move 5.4% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-06

↔ CAGE

Strength 40%

Magnet

Floor $58

Ceiling $62

Range 6.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $58–$62 for 5 days

What Happened

$57.11

-4.31%

Broke up — max move 3.9% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-02

📌 PIN

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $58

Ceiling $64

Range 10.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $64 by end of day

What Happened

$59.68

+0.73%

Closed 7.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.7%

2026-04-01

📌 PIN

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $58

Ceiling $64

Range 10.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $64 by end of day

What Happened

$59.25

+0.47%

Closed 8.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.5%

2026-03-31

📌 PIN

Strength 30%

Magnet

Floor $58

Ceiling $64

Range 9.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $64 by end of day

What Happened

$58.97

-3.74%

Closed 8.2% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -3.7%

2026-03-30

📌 PIN

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $58

Ceiling $64

Range 9.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $64 by end of day

What Happened

$61.26

-1.13%

Closed 4.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.1%

2026-03-27

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $52

Ceiling $58

Range 8.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $58 by end of day

What Happened

$61.96

-0.96%

Closed 6.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.0%

2026-03-26

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $58

Ceiling $60

Range 3.3%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $58–$60 for 5 days

What Happened

$59.25

-3.69%

2026-03-25

📌 PIN

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $55

Ceiling $62

Range 11.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $62 by end of day

What Happened

$61.52

+1.57%

Closed 0.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.6%

2026-03-24

📌 PIN

Strength 50%

Magnet

Floor $55

Ceiling $60

Range 8.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $60 by end of day

What Happened

$60.57

-0.44%

Closed 0.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.4%

2026-03-23

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $55

Ceiling $56

Range 0.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $55–$56 for 5 days

What Happened

$61.96

+3.91%

Broke up — max move 3.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-20

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $55

Ceiling $56

Range 0.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $55–$56 for 5 days

What Happened

$62.56

+5.48%

Broke up — max move 2.6% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-19

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $50

Ceiling $55

Range 8.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $55 by end of day

What Happened

$59.31

-0.08%

Closed 7.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.1%

2026-03-18

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $50

Ceiling $55

Range 8.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $55 by end of day

What Happened

$59.36

+1.59%

Closed 7.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.6%

2026-03-17

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $50

Ceiling $55

Range 8.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $55 by end of day

What Happened

$58.43

-0.14%

Closed 5.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.1%

2026-03-16

📌 PIN

Strength 10%

Magnet

Floor $50

Ceiling $55

Range 8.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $55 by end of day

What Happened

$58.51

+1.05%

Closed 6.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.1%