XLF Gamma Squeeze, Pin & Wall Analysis

XLF Financial Select ETF $51.58 +0.78% (updated 2026-05-12)

Today's OI Read — XLF

Where the walls are, where price sits, and what the dealer positioning implies for Financial Select ETF

In Between Walls?

YES

$50

2ND

$52

DOM

$51.58

Sandwiched between dominant walls — dealer hedging on both sides creates structural pinning.

Magnet Strength Details →

2.51× Very High (>2×)

Current OI 596,628

30d Avg OI 237,697

Elevated OI — dealers carry larger hedges, making price walls structurally stronger.

Put/Call Ratio

0.94

NEUTRAL

Between 0.8–1.2 — balanced positioning. No strong directional lean from options flow alone.

Dominant Wall

$52

▲ Above spot

The highest OI concentration strike — the structural anchor dealers are most committed to hedging.

Distance to #1 Wall

$-0.42

-0.81%

Price is below the dominant wall — acts as resistance.

Wall Skew

+0.584

CALL HEAVY

Call-heavy at the dominant wall — call sellers cap rallies toward it. Acts as resistance.

Today's Top Setup — XLF

SQUEEZE, PIN, and CAGE scored 0–100 from OI structure. Highest score = today's highest-conviction setup.

PIN — 53.7% hit rate (n=1,719). CAGE — 45.4% (n=1,161). SQUEEZE — 49.5% (n=5,555). Half hit, half don't — the edge is asymmetric payoff.

Strength scores are locked

PRO

See exactly which setup is most likely — and by how much

Unlock

🚀 SQUEEZE

candidate

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Stock pops ≥+5% within 10 trading days — the kind of move where the winners run far enough to outweigh the misses.

📌 PIN

AUC 0.83 measured

Strength ██%

1d horizon

Target · Price closes within 0.5% of $52 (dom strike) by +1d.

↔ CAGE

AUC 0.55 measured

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Price stays between $50 – $52 through +5d.

Top OI Walls

Largest open interest concentrations · sorted by strike price · * OI projected from prior day

2026-05-12

Rank	Strike	Call OI	Put OI	Total OI	P/C	% of Max
#3	$53 Resistance	49,404	8,082	57,486	0.16	35%
#1	$52 Resistance	130,476	34,247	164,723	0.26	100%
▶ $51.58
#4	$51 Support	13,137	20,568	33,705	1.57	20%
#2	$50 Support	43,422	50,623	94,045	1.17	57%
#5	$48 Support	973	31,461	32,434	32.33	20%

Dealer Magnet Strength

When total OI is elevated vs its 30-day rolling average, dealer hedging is heavier — walls act like magnets. Very High = stronger PIN / CAGE conviction. Near-normal = weaker structural hold.

Current Magnet Strength

Very High (>2×)

Low (<0.7×)

71.2%

274 days · 1d

Normal (0.7–1×)

91.7%

12 days · 1d

Elevated (1–1.5×)

81.2%

16 days · 1d

High (1.5–2×)

75.0%

8 days · 1d

Very High (>2×)

83.7%

93 days · 1d

Containment Rate by OI Magnitude Bucket

OI ratio = today's total OI ÷ 30-day rolling average. Does elevated OI predict price staying inside the dominant wall range?

OI Level	Days	1d	2d	5d	10d	20d
Low (<0.7×)	274	71.2%	60.2%	51.8%	40.8%	28.6%
Normal (0.7–1×)	12	91.7%	75.0%	41.7%	41.7%	25.0%
Elevated (1–1.5×)	16	81.2%	81.2%	81.2%	25.0%	12.5%
High (1.5–2×)	8	75.0%	62.5%	75.0%	50.0%	28.6%
Very High (>2×)	93	83.7%	71.4%	60.0%	53.3%	44.9%

SQUEEZE / PIN / CAGE Setup Backtest — XLF

Last 50 sessions — which setup fired, what the score was, and whether it hit. See the actual win/loss record.

0 days ·

Min Strength 60

Magnet:

2026-05-05

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $52

Ceiling $54

Range 2.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $52–$54 for 5 days

What Happened

$51.58

-0.02%

2026-05-04

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $53

Ceiling $54

Range 1.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $53–$54 for 5 days

What Happened

$51.18

-0.78%

2026-05-01

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $52

Ceiling $54

Range 2.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $52–$54 for 5 days

What Happened

$51.24

-1.31%

2026-04-30

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $52

Ceiling $53

Range 1.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $52 by end of day

What Happened

$51.92

-0.40%

2026-04-29

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $52

Ceiling $53

Range 1.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $52 by end of day

What Happened

$52.13

+0.40%

2026-04-28

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $52

Ceiling $53

Range 1.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $52 by end of day

What Happened

$51.92

+0.14%

2026-04-27

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $52

Ceiling $53

Range 1.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $52–$53 for 5 days

What Happened

$51.58

-0.44%

2026-04-24

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $52

Ceiling $53

Range 1.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $52–$53 for 5 days

What Happened

$51.92

+0.97%

2026-04-23

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $52

Ceiling $53

Range 1.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $52 by end of day

What Happened

$51.42

-0.73%

Closed 1.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.7%

2026-04-22

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $52

Ceiling $53

Range 1.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $52 by end of day

What Happened

$51.80

-0.79%

2026-04-21

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $52

Ceiling $53

Range 1.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $52 by end of day

What Happened

$52.21

-0.17%

2026-04-20

📌 PIN

Strength 45%

Magnet

Floor $52

Ceiling $53

Range 1.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $52 by end of day

What Happened

$52.30

-0.63%

Closed 0.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.6%

2026-04-17

📌 PIN

Strength 65%

Magnet

Floor $52

Ceiling $53

Range 1.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $52 by end of day

What Happened

$52.63

+0.38%

Closed 1.2% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.4%

2026-04-16

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $49

Ceiling $51

Range 3.8%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $49–$51 for 5 days

What Happened

$51.80

-0.44%

2026-04-15

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $49

Ceiling $52

Range 5.8%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $49–$52 for 5 days

What Happened

$52.21

+0.08%

2026-04-14

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $49

Ceiling $51

Range 3.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $49–$51 for 5 days

What Happened

$52.30

+1.00%

2026-04-13

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $49

Ceiling $52

Range 5.8%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $49–$52 for 5 days

What Happened

$52.63

+1.88%

2026-04-10

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $49

Ceiling $51

Range 3.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $49–$51 for 5 days

What Happened

$52.43

+3.27%

Broke up — max move 2.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-09

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $48

Ceiling $49

Range 2.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $48–$49 for 5 days

What Happened

$52.03

+1.36%

2026-04-08

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $48

Ceiling $49

Range 2.9%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $48–$49 for 5 days

What Happened

$52.17

+1.89%

2026-04-07

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $48

Ceiling $49

Range 1.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $48–$49 for 5 days

What Happened

$51.78

+3.81%

Broke up — max move 2.9% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-06

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $48

Ceiling $50

Range 3.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $50 by end of day

What Happened

$49.88

+0.00%

2026-04-02

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $48

Ceiling $50

Range 4.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $50 by end of day

What Happened

$49.88

+0.71%

Closed 0.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.7%

2026-04-01

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $48

Ceiling $50

Range 4.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $50 by end of day

What Happened

$49.53

+0.18%

2026-03-31

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $48

Ceiling $48

Range 1.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $48–$48 for 5 days

What Happened

$51.20

+3.71%

2026-03-30

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $50

Ceiling $51

Range 2.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $50–$51 for 5 days

What Happened

$49.88

+3.14%

Broke up — max move 2.4% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-27

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $50

Ceiling $51

Range 2.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $50–$51 for 5 days

What Happened

$49.88

+4.33%

Broke up — max move 3.4% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-26

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $50

Ceiling $51

Range 2.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $50–$51 for 5 days

What Happened

$49.53

+0.98%

Broke down — max move 2.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-25

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $50

Ceiling $51

Range 2.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $50–$51 for 5 days

What Happened

$49.44

+0.20%

Broke down — max move 3.1% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-24

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $50

Ceiling $51

Range 2.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $50–$51 for 5 days

What Happened

$49.37

+0.18%

Broke up — max move 3.0% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-23

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $49

Ceiling $50

Range 2.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $50 by end of day

What Happened

$49.28

+0.02%

Closed 1.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.0%

2026-03-20

📌 PIN

Strength 45%

Magnet

Floor $48

Ceiling $50

Range 4.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $50 by end of day

What Happened

$49.27

+0.39%

Closed 1.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.4%

2026-03-19

↔ CAGE

Strength 40%

Magnet

Floor $50

Ceiling $53

Range 6.1%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $50–$53 for 5 days

What Happened

$49.05

+0.12%

2026-03-18

↔ CAGE

Strength 40%

Magnet

Floor $50

Ceiling $53

Range 6.1%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $50–$53 for 5 days

What Happened

$49.34

+0.76%

2026-03-17

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $52

Ceiling $53

Range 2.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $52–$53 for 5 days

What Happened

$49.28

-0.56%

2026-03-16

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $50

Ceiling $53

Range 6.1%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $50–$53 for 5 days

What Happened

$49.27

-0.06%

2026-03-13

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $50

Ceiling $53

Range 6.1%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $50–$53 for 5 days

What Happened

$49.08

+0.39%

2026-03-12

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $50

Ceiling $52

Range 3.1%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $50–$52 for 5 days

What Happened

$48.99

+0.33%

2026-03-11

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $50

Ceiling $52

Range 3.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $50 by end of day

What Happened

$48.83

-1.63%

Closed 2.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.6%

2026-03-10

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $50

Ceiling $52

Range 3.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $50 by end of day

What Happened

$49.64

-0.84%

Closed 0.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.8%

2026-03-09

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $50

Ceiling $52

Range 3.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $50 by end of day

What Happened

$50.06

-0.54%

2026-03-06

📌 PIN

Strength 65%

Magnet

Floor $50

Ceiling $51

Range 2.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $51 by end of day

What Happened

$50.33

-0.47%

Closed 1.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -0.5%

2026-03-05

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $50

Ceiling $51

Range 1.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $50–$51 for 5 days

What Happened

$48.83

-4.68%

Broke down — max move 2.3% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-04

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $50

Ceiling $51

Range 1.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $50–$51 for 5 days

What Happened

$49.64

-3.61%

Broke down — max move 2.3% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-03

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $50

Ceiling $51

Range 1.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $50–$51 for 5 days

What Happened

$50.06

-2.25%

2026-03-02

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $50

Ceiling $51

Range 1.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $50–$51 for 5 days

What Happened

$50.33

-1.89%

2026-02-27

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $50

Ceiling $51

Range 1.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $50–$51 for 5 days

What Happened

$50.57

-1.67%

2026-02-26

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $52

Ceiling $52

Range 1.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $52–$52 for 5 days

What Happened

$51.23

-2.42%

Broke down — max move 2.5% (need ≤2%)

2026-02-25

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $52

Ceiling $52

Range 1.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $52 by end of day

What Happened

$52.50

+1.21%

Closed 1.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.2%

2026-02-24

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $52

Ceiling $52

Range 1.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $52–$52 for 5 days

What Happened

$51.21

+0.45%

Broke up — max move 3.0% (need ≤2%)