XLK Gamma Squeeze, Pin & Wall Analysis

XLK Tech Select ETF $175.20 -0.54% (updated 2026-05-12)

Today's OI Read — XLK

Where the walls are, where price sits, and what the dealer positioning implies for Tech Select ETF

In Between Walls?

YES

$160

2ND

$180

DOM

$175.20

Sandwiched between dominant walls — dealer hedging on both sides creates structural pinning.

Magnet Strength Details →

2.52× Very High (>2×)

Current OI 47,599

30d Avg OI 18,906

Elevated OI — dealers carry larger hedges, making price walls structurally stronger.

Put/Call Ratio

0.48

CALL HEAVY

Below 0.8 — call OI dominates. Bullish positioning; dealers are short calls and will sell delta into rallies.

Dominant Wall

$180

▲ Above spot

The highest OI concentration strike — the structural anchor dealers are most committed to hedging.

Distance to #1 Wall

$-4.80

-2.74%

Price is below the dominant wall — acts as resistance.

Wall Skew

+0.980

CALL HEAVY

Call-heavy at the dominant wall — call sellers cap rallies toward it. Acts as resistance.

Today's Top Setup — XLK

SQUEEZE, PIN, and CAGE scored 0–100 from OI structure. Highest score = today's highest-conviction setup.

PIN — 53.7% hit rate (n=1,719). CAGE — 45.4% (n=1,161). SQUEEZE — 49.5% (n=5,555). Half hit, half don't — the edge is asymmetric payoff.

Strength scores are locked

PRO

See exactly which setup is most likely — and by how much

Unlock

🚀 SQUEEZE

candidate

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Stock pops ≥+5% within 10 trading days — the kind of move where the winners run far enough to outweigh the misses.

📌 PIN

AUC 0.83 measured

Strength ██%

1d horizon

Target · Price closes within 0.5% of $180 (dom strike) by +1d.

↔ CAGE

AUC 0.55 measured

Strength ██%

5d horizon

Target · Price stays between $160 – $180 through +5d.

No cage setup today — walls are 11.4% apart. Dealers only defend tight ranges (<8%).

Top OI Walls

Largest open interest concentrations · sorted by strike price · * OI projected from prior day

2026-05-12

Rank	Strike	Call OI	Put OI	Total OI	P/C	% of Max
#1	$180 Resistance	5,230	54	5,284	0.01	100%
▶ $175.20
#5	$170 Support	2,214	941	3,155	0.43	60%
#2	$160 Support	3,963	1,131	5,094	0.29	96%
#4	$153 Support	1,474	1,704	3,178	1.16	60%
#3	$150 Support	2,830	1,589	4,419	0.56	84%

Dealer Magnet Strength

When total OI is elevated vs its 30-day rolling average, dealer hedging is heavier — walls act like magnets. Very High = stronger PIN / CAGE conviction. Near-normal = weaker structural hold.

Current Magnet Strength

Very High (>2×)

Low (<0.7×)

66.4%

253 days · 1d

Normal (0.7–1×)

81.2%

32 days · 1d

Elevated (1–1.5×)

65.4%

26 days · 1d

High (1.5–2×)

85.0%

20 days · 1d

Very High (>2×)

83.1%

72 days · 1d

Containment Rate by OI Magnitude Bucket

OI ratio = today's total OI ÷ 30-day rolling average. Does elevated OI predict price staying inside the dominant wall range?

OI Level	Days	1d	2d	5d	10d	20d
Low (<0.7×)	253	66.4%	54.9%	43.4%	36.4%	24.3%
Normal (0.7–1×)	32	81.2%	65.6%	62.5%	51.6%	46.7%
Elevated (1–1.5×)	26	65.4%	61.5%	42.3%	34.6%	32.0%
High (1.5–2×)	20	85.0%	80.0%	65.0%	55.0%	25.0%
Very High (>2×)	72	83.1%	77.1%	59.4%	49.3%	46.4%

SQUEEZE / PIN / CAGE Setup Backtest — XLK

Last 50 sessions — which setup fired, what the score was, and whether it hit. See the actual win/loss record.

0 days ·

Min Strength 60

Magnet:

2026-05-05

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $156

Ceiling $161

Range 3.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $156–$161 for 5 days

What Happened

$175.20

+5.78%

Broke up — max move 6.0% (need ≤2%)

2026-05-04

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $156

Ceiling $161

Range 3.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $161 by end of day

What Happened

$165.63

+2.21%

Closed 2.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.2%

2026-05-01

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $141

Ceiling $161

Range 12.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $161 by end of day

What Happened

$162.05

+0.11%

Closed 0.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.1%

2026-04-30

📌 PIN

Strength 60%

Magnet

Floor $150

Ceiling $158

Range 5.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $158 by end of day

What Happened

$161.87

+1.49%

Closed 2.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.5%

2026-04-29

📌 PIN

Strength 70%

Magnet

Floor $150

Ceiling $160

Range 6.3%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $160 by end of day

What Happened

$159.50

+0.25%

2026-04-28

📌 PIN

Strength 60%

Magnet

Floor $155

Ceiling $160

Range 3.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $160 by end of day

What Happened

$159.11

+0.80%

Closed 0.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.8%

2026-04-27

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $150

Ceiling $155

Range 3.1%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $150–$155 for 5 days

What Happened

$162.05

+0.92%

2026-04-24

↔ CAGE

Strength 40%

Magnet

Floor $150

Ceiling $160

Range 6.2%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $150–$160 for 5 days

What Happened

$161.87

+1.03%

2026-04-23

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $136

Ceiling $151

Range 9.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $136 by end of day

What Happened

$160.22

+2.81%

Closed 15.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.8%

2026-04-22

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $140

Ceiling $151

Range 7.0%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $140–$151 for 5 days

What Happened

$159.11

+0.65%

2026-04-21

📌 PIN

Strength 10%

Magnet

Floor $136

Ceiling $151

Range 9.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $136 by end of day

What Happened

$158.09

+2.20%

Closed 14.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.2%

2026-04-20

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $128

Ceiling $136

Range 5.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $128–$136 for 5 days

What Happened

$160.57

+3.89%

Broke up — max move 2.3% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-17

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $136

Ceiling $151

Range 9.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $136 by end of day

What Happened

$154.56

+0.14%

Closed 12.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.1%

2026-04-16

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $145

Range 6.6%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $135–$145 for 5 days

What Happened

$155.84

+2.51%

2026-04-15

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $145

Range 6.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $135–$145 for 5 days

What Happened

$158.09

+5.18%

Broke up — max move 2.8% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-14

📌 PIN

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $126

Ceiling $145

Range 12.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $126 by end of day

What Happened

$150.30

+1.60%

Closed 16.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.6%

2026-04-13

📌 PIN

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $126

Ceiling $145

Range 13.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $126 by end of day

What Happened

$147.94

+1.60%

Closed 15.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.6%

2026-04-10

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $126

Ceiling $145

Range 13.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $126 by end of day

What Happened

$145.61

+2.10%

Closed 13.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +2.1%

2026-04-09

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $120

Ceiling $139

Range 13.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $120 by end of day

What Happened

$142.62

+0.39%

Closed 15.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.4%

2026-04-08

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $120

Ceiling $139

Range 13.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $120 by end of day

What Happened

$142.07

+0.27%

Closed 15.6% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.3%

2026-04-07

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $120

Ceiling $139

Range 13.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $139 by end of day

What Happened

$141.69

+3.10%

Closed 2.0% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +3.1%

2026-04-06

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $120

Ceiling $139

Range 13.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $120 by end of day

What Happened

$137.43

+0.48%

Closed 12.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.5%

2026-04-02

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $129

Ceiling $131

Range 1.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $129–$131 for 5 days

What Happened

$142.62

+4.88%

Broke up — max move 4.2% (need ≤2%)

2026-04-01

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $129

Ceiling $131

Range 1.5%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $129–$131 for 5 days

What Happened

$142.07

+5.31%

2026-03-31

📌 PIN

Strength 40%

Magnet

Floor $131

Ceiling $146

Range 11.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $131 by end of day

What Happened

$134.91

+1.51%

Closed 2.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.5%

2026-03-30

📌 PIN

Strength 5%

Magnet

Floor $131

Ceiling $146

Range 11.8%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $131 by end of day

What Happened

$132.90

+4.24%

Closed 1.5% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +4.2%

2026-03-27

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $131

Ceiling $146

Range 11.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $131 by end of day

What Happened

$127.50

-1.86%

Closed 2.7% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.9%

2026-03-26

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $139

Range 3.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $135 by end of day

What Happened

$129.92

-1.95%

Closed 3.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.9%

2026-03-25

📌 PIN

Strength 45%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $139

Range 2.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $139 by end of day

What Happened

$132.50

-3.11%

Closed 4.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -3.1%

2026-03-24

📌 PIN

Strength 70%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $139

Range 2.9%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $135 by end of day

What Happened

$136.76

+0.45%

Closed 1.3% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.4%

2026-03-23

📌 PIN

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $136

Range 0.7%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $136 by end of day

What Happened

$136.15

-0.58%

2026-03-20

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $139

Range 3.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $135 by end of day

What Happened

$136.95

+1.23%

Closed 1.4% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.2%

2026-03-19

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $140

Range 3.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $135–$140 for 5 days

What Happened

$132.50

-4.28%

Broke down — max move 2.3% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-18

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $140

Range 3.6%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $135–$140 for 5 days

What Happened

$136.76

-0.87%

2026-03-17

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $140

Range 3.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $135–$140 for 5 days

What Happened

$136.15

-2.43%

Broke down — max move 3.0% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-16

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $140

Range 3.6%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $135–$140 for 5 days

What Happened

$136.95

-1.32%

2026-03-13

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $150

Range 11.0%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $135 by end of day

What Happened

$138.78

+1.45%

Closed 2.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.4%

2026-03-12

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $127

Ceiling $136

Range 6.5%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $127–$136 for 5 days

What Happened

$138.43

+0.43%

2026-03-11

↔ CAGE

Strength 55%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $136

Range 0.7%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $135–$136 for 5 days

What Happened

$137.96

-1.76%

Broke down — max move 2.6% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-10

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $127

Ceiling $136

Range 6.4%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $127–$136 for 5 days

What Happened

$139.54

-0.16%

Broke up — max move 2.1% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-09

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $127

Ceiling $136

Range 6.4%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $127–$136 for 5 days

What Happened

$138.78

-0.70%

2026-03-06

↔ CAGE

Strength 20%

Magnet

Floor $127

Ceiling $136

Range 6.6%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $127–$136 for 5 days

What Happened

$136.80

-0.36%

Broke up — max move 2.3% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-05

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $137

Ceiling $140

Range 2.1%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $137–$140 for 5 days

What Happened

$137.84

-1.67%

Broke down — max move 2.1% (need ≤2%)

2026-03-04

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $137

Ceiling $140

Range 2.1%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $137–$140 for 5 days

What Happened

$140.43

+0.42%

2026-03-03

📌 PIN

Strength 75%

Magnet

Floor $135

Ceiling $137

Range 1.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $137 by end of day

What Happened

$139.84

+1.70%

Closed 2.1% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +1.7%

2026-03-02

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $137

Ceiling $146

Range 6.4%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $137 by end of day

What Happened

$137.50

-1.46%

2026-02-27

📌 PIN

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $137

Ceiling $146

Range 6.5%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $137 by end of day

What Happened

$139.54

+0.56%

Closed 1.8% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved +0.6%

2026-02-26

📌 PIN

Strength 70%

Magnet

Floor $140

Ceiling $146

Range 4.3%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Close within 0.5% of $140 by end of day

What Happened

$138.76

-1.60%

Closed 0.9% from wall (need ≤0.5%) — moved -1.6%

2026-02-25

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $140

Ceiling $146

Range 4.2%

✗ Miss

Win Criteria

Stay inside $140–$146 for 5 days

What Happened

$139.84

-2.22%

Broke down — max move 3.0% (need ≤2%)

2026-02-24

↔ CAGE

Strength 35%

Magnet

Floor $140

Ceiling $146

Range 4.3%

✓ Hit

Win Criteria

Stay inside $140–$146 for 5 days

What Happened

$137.50

-2.01%